- FN 4.5's ended down 3 ticks at 101-18
- 10yr yields backed up a not-insignificant 3.4 bps to a not-insignificant 3.489 level.
- Yield curve steeper, though 5's and 7's took the worst of it.
- Stocks eked out just enough of a gain to call it a gain.
- Inflation Data coming up tomorrow and next day (PPI and CPI)
- Housing Starts tomorrow share 830am slot with PPI
- FOMC minutes at 2pm on Wednesday.
By and large, most technical frameworks through which we've been viewing the markets recently held up well today despite the selling in bonds. That said, we're definitely closer to lock signals than float signals. For some, perhaps close enough. The caveat there would be the possibility that this week sees some more reconnection to economic data with domestic inflation readings, housing starts, and Fed minutes on Wednesday. That data would have to be fairly unfriendly for bonds in order for the ranges you're looking at to break in our favor. Either that, or more tape-bombs out of Europe (or other iterations of contagion-panic, etc...).
That being said, as long as you're imminently ready to lock, I agree day by day floating can make fine sense for those deals in your pipe that are "floatable" (meaning they fit into your personal gut-flop strategy). Do keep in mind though, that any deal you've had for 30-45 days has seen the better part of 2 pts of price improvement in MBS. Of course that's not always going to translate 1:1 with rate sheets, but as far as 45 day rallies go, this is about as well as we've seen them go.