- MBS went out up 6 ticks at 101-03
- 10yr yields down 5.1 bps at 3.546
- Secondary Market Current Coupon 2bps lower at 4.346%. Yield spreads wider
- Very little changed in the last few hours of the day
- Lots to consider
It's very uncomfortable for me to say that today's price action "confirms" the break to lower yields in treasuries.
AQ mentioned the phrase "made of glass" earlier this week with respect to the factors driving the rally. I think that's right, and whether or not you do too, it's a risk for which we must account.
That doesn't mean that we should not be experiencing some gains in bonds at the moment, but when and if the Euro-panic resolves itself (or even if it's sting is merely dulled by time and familiarity), yields will be a bit higher than they are now. How high? Not sure, but I'm feeling better about a 3.6 to 3.75 range than a 3.5 to 3.65 range (if I had to pick 15 bps in which 80% of the next few weeks would occur).
Big wild cards: NFP on the econ side, and take your pick on the headline risk side. More important than predicting where and when bonds might find a temporary turning point is to recognize that the next two days will be great opportunities for that. There will be plenty of "at-bats" for stocks to rebound and for bonds to reconsider. Adjust accordingly.
All I have left for you are the charts below. But if you haven't seen it already, please make the time to read this post: REVISITING BIG PICTURE FUNDAMENTALS AND THE BOND MARKET'S MOTIVATIONS
I know it's long, but print it if you have to. You won't be sorry.