MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:04 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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10:31AM :
Merkel Says EU Summit Will Set Greece Plan - Sources
The following article from Reuters is potentially interesting to markets as it suggests that the EFSF being leveraged through the ECB (something that had given a lift to stocks, and been negative for bonds) has been ruled out. It also highlights 10/23 as a potentially important date for news from the EU...
(Reuters) - Germany's Angela Merkel expects European leaders to produce a "work plan" for Greece at an Oct. 23 summit, possibly including a permanent "troika" mission to monitor its debts, she told her Christian Democrats (CDU) on Tuesday, party sources said.
Merkel also said the summit should find ways to ensure the euro zone rescue fund (or European Financial Stabiltiy Facility) is used effectively, but that leveraging it via the European Central Bank had been ruled out.
CDU sources present at a meeting with the chancellor said she also expected the summit to agree on sending deficit-busting countries to court.
(Reuters) - Germany's Angela Merkel expects European leaders to produce a "work plan" for Greece at an Oct. 23 summit, possibly including a permanent "troika" mission to monitor its debts, she told her Christian Democrats (CDU) on Tuesday, party sources said.
Merkel also said the summit should find ways to ensure the euro zone rescue fund (or European Financial Stabiltiy Facility) is used effectively, but that leveraging it via the European Central Bank had been ruled out.
CDU sources present at a meeting with the chancellor said she also expected the summit to agree on sending deficit-busting countries to court.
9:09AM :
ALERT:
MBS Turn Red After Opening Stronger. Weaker Vs. Treasuries
MBS prices came into the NY session significantly improved from yesterday, briefly matching the highs seen on 10/13. Treasuries were even stronger overnight, as they usually are into a healthy little rally, briefly hitting the 2.08's before NY volume picked up. When it did, yields began rising and MBS prices began falling, WELL BEFORE the release of the higher-than-expected Producer Price Index.
MBS have tightened somewhat, but yet another article on refi.gov in the WSJ this morning is keeping some pressure on spreads. Current levels:
-Fannie 3.5's down 3 ticks at 101-05
-Fannie 4.0's down 3 ticks at 103-12
- Ginnie 3.5's down 2 ticks at 103-04
-10yr yields down almost 1 bp at 2.146
2.15 looks like a potential short term pivot and MBS seem like they're trying to hold onto some sort of support at their pivot point on yesterday's highs (well... NEAR yesterday's highs anyway).
MBS have tightened somewhat, but yet another article on refi.gov in the WSJ this morning is keeping some pressure on spreads. Current levels:
-Fannie 3.5's down 3 ticks at 101-05
-Fannie 4.0's down 3 ticks at 103-12
- Ginnie 3.5's down 2 ticks at 103-04
-10yr yields down almost 1 bp at 2.146
2.15 looks like a potential short term pivot and MBS seem like they're trying to hold onto some sort of support at their pivot point on yesterday's highs (well... NEAR yesterday's highs anyway).
8:43AM :
ECON: Producer Price Index Higher Than Expected
(Reuters) - U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in September to record their largest increase in five months as gasoline prices surged, a government report showed on Tuesday.
The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted index for prices received by farms, factories and refineries, increased 0.8 percent after being flat in August. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to increase 0.2 percent.
Excluding volatile food and energy, wholesale prices rose 0.2 percent last month after inching up 0.1 percent in August. That was above economists' expectations for a 0.1 percent gain.
But the strong rise in wholesale prices last month is unlikely to spark a broad increase in inflation pressures given the weak economic environment.
It will probably have little impact on the Federal Reserve, which focuses on core inflation, as it weighs options to help the anemic recovery and pull down an unemployment rate stuck above 9 percent.
Pressure on the U.S. central bank has lessened in recent weeks as data such as retail sales and the trade balance suggested economic growth accelerated in the third quarter after the second quarter's tepid 1.3 percent annual rate. Economists estimate gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of anywhere between 2.3 percent and 2.7 percent in the third quarter.
Wholesale prices outside of food and fuel were bumped up by a 0.6 percent rise in light motor trucks -- accounting for a third of the rise in the core PPI measure. Light trucks had risen 0.1 percent in August.
In the 12 months to September, core producer prices rose 2.5 percent after increasing by a similar margin the prior month. The rise was above economists' expectations for a 2.4 percent advance. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted index for prices received by farms, factories and refineries, increased 0.8 percent after being flat in August. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to increase 0.2 percent.
Excluding volatile food and energy, wholesale prices rose 0.2 percent last month after inching up 0.1 percent in August. That was above economists' expectations for a 0.1 percent gain.
But the strong rise in wholesale prices last month is unlikely to spark a broad increase in inflation pressures given the weak economic environment.
It will probably have little impact on the Federal Reserve, which focuses on core inflation, as it weighs options to help the anemic recovery and pull down an unemployment rate stuck above 9 percent.
Pressure on the U.S. central bank has lessened in recent weeks as data such as retail sales and the trade balance suggested economic growth accelerated in the third quarter after the second quarter's tepid 1.3 percent annual rate. Economists estimate gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of anywhere between 2.3 percent and 2.7 percent in the third quarter.
Wholesale prices outside of food and fuel were bumped up by a 0.6 percent rise in light motor trucks -- accounting for a third of the rise in the core PPI measure. Light trucks had risen 0.1 percent in August.
In the 12 months to September, core producer prices rose 2.5 percent after increasing by a similar margin the prior month. The rise was above economists' expectations for a 2.4 percent advance. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Matthew Graham : "RTRS - GEITHNER SAYS TARP LENDING PROGRAMS SHOULD PRODUCE OVERALL TAXPAYER RETURN OF OVER $10 BLN "
Ken Crute : "the remaing builders are doing very well here and building great homes with lots of upgrades at very reasonable prices "
Brent Borcherding : "What? That's pure genius. You mean to tell us that they decided not to create more supply than there was actual demand for?"
Matt Hodges : "home building is great in our market - only because there's only 1/4 of the inventory now - builders have self-regulated their production"
Jeff Anderson : "Homebuilder sentiment up.So someone built a house an told their friends about it. How's building doing in everyone's neck of the woods?"
Aaron Buyside Meyer : "I took one on 10/7 to close on 10/27 and I thought that was crazy"
John Rodgers : "yep"
Matt Hodges : "yes, i took a loan app on friday, that closes on 10/28, kc"
Ken Crute : "what is everyone seeing as a turn time on a purchase? anyone able to get one done in 2 weeks? "
Scott Valins : "latest talk on refinance plan http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/us-usgovt-mortgagerefinancing-idUSTRE79H0IS20111018?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews"
Matthew Graham : "remember, that China data is from August. Also, 10/24 investor class data will be released on recent auction cycle which will speak more to the unicorn of Chinese retaliatory bid-pulling on US Debt much sooner than waiting for TIC data"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- CHINA U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES HOLDINGS $1.137 TRLN IN AUGUST VS $1.1735 TRLN IN JULY "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - AUGUST NET FOREIGN PURCHASES OF US TREASURY BONDS, NOTES $ 60.1 BLN VS $15.5 BLN PURCHASES IN JULY "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. AUGUST NET LONG-TERM INFLOW (INCL. SWAPS/OTHER) $47.0 BLN VS REV $8.1 BLN OUTFLOW IN JULY "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. AUGUST NET OVERALL CAPITAL INFLOW $89.6 BLN VS REVISED $52.4 BLN OUTFLOW IN JULY "
Matthew Graham : "not only that but YoY Core is +2.5 vs est. +2.4. Not a huge deal big picture"
Chris Kopec : "Less food/energy +0.2.... at the wholesale level"
Scott Valins : "sign of more margin squeezing"
Matthew Graham : "wouldn't worry too much about PPI. not a big mover"
Victor Burek : "ppi higher"
Victor Burek : "-.84 vs -.11"
Victor Burek : "huge miss by goldman "