MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
102-12 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
104-20 : +0-03
FNMA 4.5
106-02 : +0-03
FNMA 5.0
107-21 : +0-03
GNMA 3.5
104-00 : +0-03
GNMA 4.0
106-29 : +0-01
GNMA 4.5
108-22 : -0-01
GNMA 5.0
110-11 : +0-02
FHLMC 3.5
102-07 : +0-04
FHLMC 4.0
104-15 : +0-03
FHLMC 4.5
105-19 : +0-03
FHLMC 5.0
107-03 : +0-03
Pricing as of 11:02 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
10:07AM  :  ECON: Sentiment Slightly Higher. Home Prices Slightly Lower
CONSUMER SENTIMENT


RTRS-US CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX FINAL DECEMBER 69.9 (CONSENSUS 68.0) VS PRELIMINARY DEC 67.7

RTRS- CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX FINAL DECEMBER 79.6 (CONSENSUS 78.0) VS PRELIMINARY DEC 77.9

RTRS- CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS INDEX FINAL DEC 63.6 (CONSENSUS 61.1) VS PRELIMINARY DEC 61.1

RTRS- 12-MONTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INDEX FINAL DECEMBER 70 VS PRELIMINARY DEC 64

RTRS- 1-YEAR INFLATION OUTLOOK FINAL DEC 3.1 PCT VS PRELIMINARY DEC 3.1 PCT

RTRS- 5-YEAR INFLATION OUTLOOK FINAL DEC 2.7 PCT VS PRELIMINARY DEC 2.7 PCT

RTRS- CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX, EXPECTATIONS INDEX ALL AT HIGHEST SINCE JUNE

FHFA HOME PRICES
RTRS - U.S. HOME PRICES -0.2 PCT IN OCTOBER FROM SEPTEMBER - U.S. REGULATOR

RTRS-- U.S. HOME PRICES -2.8 PCT IN 12 MONTHS THROUGH OCTOBER - U.S. REGULATOR
8:49AM  :  ECON: Final GDP Slightly Lower in Q3 vs. Preliminary Reading and Forecast
  • RTRS - FINAL Q3 GDP +1.8 PCT (CONSENSUS +2.0 PCT), PREV +2.0 PCT; FINAL SALES +3.2 PCT (CONS +3.6 PCT), PREV +3.6 PCT
  • RTRS - FINAL Q3 GDP DEFLATOR +2.6 PCT (CONS +2.5 PCT), PREV +2.5 PCT
  • RTRS - Q3 PCE PRICE INDEX +2.3 PCT (CONS +2.3 PCT), PREV +2.3 PCT; CORE PCE +2.1 PCT (CONS +2.0 PCT), PREV +2.0 PCT
  • RTRS - Q3 CONSUMER SPENDING +1.7 PCT (PREV +2.3 PCT), DURABLES +5.7 PCT (PREV +5.5 PCT)
  • RTRS - Q3 MARKET-BASED PCE PRICE INDEX +2.6 PCT (PREV +2.6 PCT), CORE +2.3 PCT (PREV +2.3 PCT)
  • RTRS - Q3 BUSINESS INVESTMENT +15.7 PCT (PREV +14.8 PCT), EQUIPMENT/SOFTWARE +16.2 PCT (PREV +15.6 PCT)
  • RTRS - Q3 HOME INVESTMENT +1.3 PCT (PREV +1.6 PCT), BUS. INVESTMENT IN STRUCTURES +14.4 PCT (PREV +12.6 PCT)
  • RTRS - Q3 EXPORTS +4.7 PCT (PREV +4.3 PCT), IMPORTS +1.2 PCT (PREV +0.5 PCT)
  • RTRS - Q3 GDP EX MOTOR VEHICLES +1.7 PCT (PREV +1.9 PCT)
  • RTRS - Q3 YEAR-ON-YEAR PCE PRICE INDEX +2.9 PCT (PREV +2.9 PCT), CORE PCE +1.6 PCT (PREV +1.6 PCT)
  • RTRS - Q3 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE -$2.0 BLN (PREV -$8.5 BLN)
  • RTRS - Q3 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE CUTS 1.35 PERCENTAGE POINT FROM GDP CHANGE
8:46AM  :  ECON: Jobless Claims Continue Lower, Beating Consensus
  • RTRS - JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 364,000 DEC 17 WEEK (CONSENSUS 375,000) FROM 368,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 366,000)
  • RTRS - JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 380,250 DEC 17 WEEK FROM 388,250 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 387,750)
  • RTRS - CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.546 MLN (CON. 3.600 MLN) DEC 10 WEEK FROM 3.625 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.603 MLN)
  • RTRS - INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO 2.8 PCT DEC 10 WEEK FROM 2.9 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.9 PCT)
  • RTRS - NEW JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE MID-APRIL 2008, CONTINUED CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE MID-SEPT 2008
8:19AM  :  ALERT: Bond Markets Slightly Improved Amid Absent Volume and Headlines
Volume in the overnight session was some of the lowest of the year. Trading was uninspired by any meaningful headline or event. Year-end is officially upon us and if anything else that matters is to happen, it will have to be a massive economic data surprise this morning or unexpected (and similarly massive) European headline. Even then, the year feels "over" in many regards, chief among them being participation.

We'd hate to "move along, nothing to see here," especially since that runs counter to our mission, but that's the most appropriate phrase between now and whenever volume picks back up in January (again, barring the massive surprises).

10yr yields are just under 2 ticks lower at 1.951 and MBS are starting the day about 1 tick better at 102-09. The first hail Mary passes will be thrown by economic data this morning, and come in the form of Corporate Profits, GDP, and Jobless Claims. Consumer Sentiment, Leading indicators and FHFA Home Prices hit later in the morning.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jeff Statz  :  "robot monkey trading tomorrow"
Matthew Graham  :  "bout half recent norms"
Ray J  :  "hoy, any volume today?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - 10:15:14 AM NY FED SAYS BUYING TREASURIES WITH MATURITIES RANGING FROM FEBRUARY 2020 TO NOVEMBER 2021"
Matthew Graham  :  "bit older news, and naturally, already on the schedule, but most likely candidate for current bond market levity : "
Matthew Graham  :  "(Reuters Instant View) JOBLESS CLAIMS: "They are good. They are below expectations. It seems to be going the right way. I don't know how permanently it is. It seems like California and New York are losing a lot of claims which might be related holiday hirings. " - ROBBERT VAN BATENBURG, HEAD OF GLOBAL RESEARCH, LOUIS CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK "
Matthew Graham  :  "(Reuters Instant Views) "The downward trend in initial filings over the past three weeks is a definite positive in terms of firings while we still await the big jumps in hirings. Due to what I believe will be a deep, not mild, recession in Europe, the pace of hiring in 2012 will likely still be mediocre." - PETER BOOCKVAR, EQUITY STRATEGIST, MILLER TABAK + CO IN NEW YORK "
Victor Burek  :  "also beg leap from temperory hiring to permanent hiring"
Steven Stone  :  "its a big leap from NOT FIRING to HIRING"
Scott Valins  :  "the seasonal adjustment to claims is supposed to eliminate the thought that the numbers are low b/c less firing around holiday season correct?"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "lots of data with little reaction"
Scott Valins  :  "gm all seems like muted reaction to all of the numbers "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US Q3 CONSUMER SPENDING +1.7 PCT (PREV +2.3 PCT), "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US NEW JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE MID-APRIL 2008, CONTINUED CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE MID-SEPT 2008 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US Q3 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAX REVISED TO +2.7 PCT (PREV +3.0 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US FINAL Q3 GDP +1.8 PCT (CONSENSUS +2.0 PCT), PREV +2.0 PCT; FINAL SALES +3.2 PCT (CONS +3.6 PCT), PREV +3.6 PCT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 364,000 DEC 17 WEEK (CONSENSUS 375,000) FROM 368,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 366,000) "
Matthew Graham  :  "official answer, it doesn't even matter where they go unless volume picks up, or we're otherwise given reason to believe that they're going somewhere for a valid reason. For now, 1.98 appears to be the supportive yield typed into black boxes left to man empty trade desks"
Mike Drews  :  "which direction are 10's gonna go....is the trend not our friend?"