MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
101-29 : -0-13
FNMA 4.0
104-08 : -0-10
FNMA 4.5
105-27 : -0-06
FNMA 5.0
107-16 : -0-05
GNMA 3.5
103-16 : -0-13
GNMA 4.0
106-15 : -0-11
GNMA 4.5
108-13 : -0-07
GNMA 5.0
110-07 : -0-05
FHLMC 3.5
101-24 : -0-12
FHLMC 4.0
104-03 : -0-10
FHLMC 4.5
105-13 : -0-05
FHLMC 5.0
106-30 : -0-04
Pricing as of 11:02 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
10:00AM  :  Senate Approves Payroll Tax Cut Extension
CNBC: "The Senate has approved a two-month renewal of payroll tax cuts for every worker and unemployment benefits for millions, moving President Barack Obama closer to a convincing victory over Republicans who control the House."
9:35AM  :  FHA Extends Waiver of Anti-Flipping Regulations Through 2012
In an effort to continue stabilizing home values and improve conditions in communities experiencing high foreclosure activity, Acting Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Commissioner Carol J. Galante will extend FHA’s temporary waiver of the anti-flipping regulations.

With certain exceptions, FHA regulations prohibit insuring a mortgage on a home owned by the seller for less than 90 days. In 2010, FHA temporarily waived this regulation through January 31, 2011, and later extended that waiver through the remainder of 2011. The new extension will permit buyers to continue to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD-owned properties, bank-owned properties, or properties resold through private sales. It will allow homes to resell as quickly as possible, helping to stabilize real estate prices and to revitalize neighborhoods and communities.

The extension is effective through December 31, 2012, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by FHA. All other terms of the existing Waiver will remain the same. The Waiver contains strict conditions and guidelines to prevent the predatory practice of property flipping, in which properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers. The Waiver continues to be limited to sales meeting the following conditions:
  • All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
  • In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller’s acquisition cost, the Waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions and documents the justification for the increase in value.
  • The Waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.
9:20AM  :  ALERT: Please Keep Today's Themes in Mind When Observing Current Weakness
Rather than open up the dashboard, or mobilembs.com and exclaim "What the heck?!" upon seeing current weakness in MBS (down 7 ticks at 102-03) or Treasuries (up 4bps to 1.99), we'd greatly advocate not letting it fluster you too much. Volume is just too low for any of this trading to mean anything. That said, lenders tend to fall at different places on the spectrum of this belief and some will let it affect rate sheets more than others. With volume as low as it is, and with next week not expected to be much better, we would reiterate caution about the potential lack of reprieve until the new year. AQ notes: "if you need to lock a loan any time before early January and haven't, you're playing with fire."
9:00AM  :  Freddie Mac November Volume Summary Highlights
  • The total mortgage portfolio decreased at an annualized rate of 6.9% in November.
  • Single-family refinance-loan purchase and guarantee volume was $27.0 billion in November, representing 71% of total mortgage portfolio purchases and issuances.
  • Total number of loan modifications were 6,886 in November 2011 and 103,583 for the eleven months ended November 30, 2011.
  • The aggregate unpaid principal balance (UPB) of our mortgage-related investments portfolio decreased by approximately $5.8 billion in November.
  • Freddie Mac mortgage-related securities and other guarantee commitments decreased at an annualized rate of 9.7% in November.
  • Our single-family seriously delinquent rate increased from 3.54% in October to 3.57% in November. Our multifamily delinquency rate decreased from 0.31% in October to 0.28% in November.
  • The measure of our exposure to changes in portfolio market value (PMVS-L) averaged $233 million in November. Duration gap averaged 0 months.
  • On September 6, 2008, the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) appointed FHFA as Conservator of Freddie Mac.
8:47AM  :  ECON: Consumer Spending Declines in November
This is another non-event. Spending missed the +0.3 consensus, but was flat vs October. Incomes were more of a miss, but gains had ramped up in the last two reports. The most important part of the report, core PCE, is yet another indication that inflation is a non-issue.

RTRS- PERSONAL SPENDING +0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.3 PCT) VS OCT +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT)

RTRS- PERSONAL INCOME +0.1 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT) VS OCT +0.4 PCT (PREV +0.4 PCT)

RTRS- CORE PCE PRICE INDEX +0.1 PCT (+0.0819; CONS +0.1 PCT) VS OCT +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT)

RTRS- OVERALL PCE PRICE INDEX 0.0 PCT (-0.0384) VS OCT -0.1 PCT (PREV -0.1 PCT)

RTRS- YEAR-OVER-YEAR PCE PRICE INDEX +2.5 PCT VS OCT +2.7 PCT (PREV +2.7 PCT); CORE +1.7 PCT VS OCT +1.7 PCT (PREV +1.7 PCT)

RTRS- REAL CONSUMER SPENDING +0.2 PCT VS OCT +0.2 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT)

RTRS- PERSONAL SAVING RATE 3.5 PCT VS OCT 3.6 PCT

RTRS- MKT-BASED PCE PRICE INDEX 0.0 PCT (OCT -0.1 PCT), CORE +0.1 PCT (OCT +0.1 PCT)

RTRS- MKT-BASED YEAR-OVER-YEAR PCE PRICE INDEX +2.7 PCT, CORE +1.7 PCT

RTRS- PERSONAL INCOME WEAKEST READING SINCE AUG (-0.1 PCT); YEAR-OVER-YEAR PCE PRICE INDEX RISE SMALLEST SINCE APRIL (+2.4 PCT)
8:41AM  :  ECON: November Durable Goods Rise on Transportation
The key takeaway from today's report is the isolated strength in a few sectors and weakness almost everywhere else. Nondefense aircraft/parts crushed last month's 14% decline and rose 73.3% this month. Transportation equipment was up 14.7% after falling -4.5% last month. Factoring out those two, the report was pretty flat.

RTRS- DURABLES ORDERS +3.8 PCT (CONS. +2.0 PCT) VS OCT 0.0 PCT (PREV -0.5 PCT)

RTRS- DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION +0.3 PCT (CONS +0.5 PCT) VS OCT +1.5 PCT (PREV +1.1 PCT)

RTRS- DURABLES EX-DEFENSE +3.7 PCT VS OCT +1.1 PCT (PREV +0.5 PCT)

RTRS- NONDEFENSE CAP ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT -1.2 PCT (CONS +1.0 PCT) VS OCT -0.9 PCT (PREV -0.8 PCT)

RTRS- GEN. MACHINERY +0.9 PCT, ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT -1.2 PCT, DEFENSE AIRCRAFT/PARTS +12.1 PCT

RTRS- DURABLE GOODS RISE LARGEST SINCE JULY (+4.2 PCT); DURABLES EX-DEFENSE RISE LARGEST SINCE JULY (+4.9 PCT)
8:17AM  :  ALERT: Bond Markets Slightly Weaker on Inconsequentially Low Volume
We hit the 8am mark this morning with just under 29k 10yrs futures contracts having changed hands. That's the lowest we've seen all year, and there's some similarly themed analysis from ICAP this morning: "There may be more economic indicators on the calendar today than there will be market participants around to react to them."

We can't really say it any better than that... Even though there are a few pieces of economic data on the calendar, they'd have to be mindblowingly far from the consensus in order to rouse much of a response. Beyond that, there's always the possibility of an unexpected Euro tape-bomb, but of course, that too would need to be large and well constructed tape-bomb if it's to do any damage to domestic markets.

The low volume means that price action could be somewhat distorted. As we said yesterday, we really wouldn't draw any conclusions from trading levels until the new year. From a market-watching perspective, we're all sort-of working the metaphorical night shift, guarding a jail full of cute little puppies and sweet old grandmothers: sure, there's a tiny chance that such a combination could spell trouble, but more likely than not, we can probably just doze off.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Frank Ceizyk  :  "Phillip—maybe the answer lies in your question –‘the second richest county in NJ saw a 15% increase in home values, yet per capita income was flat or down”. Economic fundamentals of investing were replaced by a speculative fast money gold rush mentality in real estate. You say “how you could make less but spend more”—easy: many people who were more savvy about buying low and selling high…problem is they were many more less sophisticated “speculators” who put all their eggs into the house value"
philip mancuso  :  "This is somewhat revisionist, but the model was never sustainable. In 2002, the second richest county in NJ saw a 15% increase in home values (it’s fuzzy but I think that was the number), yet per capita income was flat or down. Excuse not having the exact details, but it was a while ago. How could you make less, yet spend more? Moreover, if the most skilled, blessed and/or intelligent workers aren’t earning more, who is?? Well, with unprecedented wealth creation through inheritance, real e"
Matthew Graham  :  "AQ wrote some excellent context on the fairly ridiculous sampling error ranges on these home sales reports here: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/01262011_december_new_homes_sales.asp"
Matthew Graham  :  "key point being: " This is 1.6 percent (±12.2%)* ""
AQ  :  "Sales of new single-family houses in November 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 315,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.6 percent (±12.2%)* above the revised October rate of 310,000 and is 9.8 percent (±19.5%)* above the November 2010 estimate of 287,000."
AQ  :  "and once again the Standard Error makes the data totally useless!"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US HOMES FOR SALE AT END OF NOV RECORD LOW 158,000 UNITS VS OCT 160,000 UNITS "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US NOV MEDIAN SALE PRICE LOWEST SINCE OCT 2010 ($204,200) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US NOV NEW HOME SUPPLY 6.0 MONTHS' WORTH AT CURRENT PACE, LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2006, VS OCT 6.2 MONTHS "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US NOV SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES RATE HIGHEST SINCE APRIL (316,000 UNITS) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US NOV SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 315,000 UNIT ANN. RATE (CONS 313,000) VS OCT 310,000 (PREV 307,000) "
Matthew Graham  :  "(Reuters Instant View) - Durable Goods - "Certainly the top line number for durables was very strong but excluding transportation it was right in line with expectations. The durables has been a pretty strong number recently. The whisper expectation was for a beat on the core side excluding transportation. Transportation is so influenced by aircraft orders and aircraft orders are not locked in stone." - TIM GHRISKEY CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF SOLARIS ASSET MANAGEMENT IN BEDFORD HILLS, NEW"
Matthew Graham  :  "(Reuters Instant View) - on Durable Goods - "The overall headline does not reflect the overall weakness in the report. Capital expenditures have been a major contributor to growth in every quarter during the recovery and this report shows it will actually be a drag on fourth quarter GDP. It will be a substantial enough drag in fourth quarter GDP versus being a major contributor." - JACOB OUBINA, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK "
Matthew Graham  :  "oh DK... the last two days had been so nice! I was just thinking how nice it's been not to be talking about the 3.0. Now I'm going to make Cratchet work overtime and keep the goose all to myself"
Daniel Kramer  :  "all i want for christmas is for MG to tell me the volume of 3.0 trade is picking up :)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US NOV PERSONAL INCOME WEAKEST READING SINCE AUG (-0.1 PCT); YEAR-OVER-YEAR PCE PRICE INDEX RISE SMALLEST SINCE APRIL (+2.4 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US NOV CORE PCE PRICE INDEX +0.1 PCT (+0.0819; CONS +0.1 PCT) VS OCT +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US NOV PERSONAL SPENDING +0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.3 PCT) VS OCT +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. NOV DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION +0.3 PCT (CONS +0.5 PCT) VS OCT +1.5 PCT (PREV +1.1 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US NOV DURABLES ORDERS +3.8 PCT (CONS. +2.0 PCT) VS OCT 0.0 PCT (PREV -0.5 PCT) "