• RTRS -BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.3 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.4 PCT) VS OCT +0.8 PCT (PREV +0.8 PCT)
• RTRS -BUSINESS SALES +0.3 PCT VS OCT +0.6 PCT (PREV +0.7 PCT)
• RTRS -INVENTORY/SALES RATIO 1.27 MONTHS' WORTH VS OCT 1.27 MONTHS

>30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 12, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.91 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.

>15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.08 percent.

>5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.86 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.72 percent.

>1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.23 percent.

• 08:30 - ECB president Draghi starts news conference after bank keeps rates on hold at 1.0 pct as expected
• 08:31 - ECB's Draghi - inflation likely to stay above 2 pct for several months, before dropping below 2 pct
• 08:31 - Draghi - economic outlook subject to high uncertainty, downside risks substantial
• 08:31 - Draghi - price pressures in euro zone should remain modest over policy-relevant horizon
• 08:33 - Draghi - all non standard ECB measures are temporary
• 08:34 - Draghi - expect euro area economy to recover, albeit very gradually, in the course of this year
• 08:35 - Draghi - substantial downside growth risks: debt crisis, weaker than expected global growth, protectionism
• 08:36 - Draghi - decline in inflation to below 2 pct expected, driven by weaker growth, modest price, wage pressures
• 08:36 - Draghi - inflation risks broadly balanced
• 08:36 - Draghi - main downside risk to inflation, weaker euro, global growth
• 08:38 - Draghi - lending data do not suggest tensions have significantly affected credit supply for whole of euro area, but close scrutiny warranted
• 08:40 - Draghi - slippages in implementation of fiscal plans should be corrected
• 08:41 - Draghi -fiscal compact is important contribution to ensuring long-run stability of euro zone countries
• 08:39 - Draghi - banks' moves to improve finances should not hurt lending to economy
• 08:42 - Draghi - wording of fiscal compact rule need to be effective, unambiguous
• 08:42 - Draghi - welcome reaffirmation that decisions on greek debt are unique, exceptional

The Report on Jobless Claims this morning may as well have hit 400k. It's almost as if someone slipped the D.O.L. a twenty in exchange for a 399k headline...

After a two decent readings in the 360's in early December, claims moved up again in the last two weeks of the month, but there was still some hope that 4-week moving average would continue lower. Today's report is the first turn higher for the 4-week average since 11/26, or in 6 weeks.

Continuing claims also rose from 3.609 mln to 3.628 mln. Although these are weaker than expected jobs numbers, the bigger market movers are the Retail Sales Report and the current Draghi Press Conference after the ECB Rate Decision.

Perhaps the most anticipated report of the week, December Retail Sales, missed expectations this morning, rising only 0.1 pct versus a +0.3 pct consensus and a +0.4pct reading in November. Sales excluding autos fell for the first time since May 2010, down 0.2 pct vs last month's +0.3 pct.

Gas sales led the decline falling 1.6 pct after rising 0.9 pct last month. Factoring out gasoline, retail sales would have hit their 0.3 pct expectations. Core sales, however (excluding gas, cars and building materials) still fell 0.1 pct vs Novembers 0.3 pct gain.

The pull back in the Jobless Claims report that came out at the same time is relatively inconsequential compared to Core Retail Sales turning negative on what was expected to be a busy holiday month. Stocks have shed most of their overnight gains and 10yr yields fell from 1.92+ to 1.90.