MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:04 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
10:10AM :
ECON: Factory Orders Rise in Line With Estimates
This gain in Factory Orders may be the largest since 7/2011, but it's a +1.8% gain vs a +1.7% consensus on a mid-tier economic release. Verdict: relative non-event. Stocks fell a bit, and 10yr yields came in a bit, but the reaction has already played out in limited volume. Back to trading headlines....
From the Census Bureau:
New orders for manufactured goods in November, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.2 billion or 1.8 percent to $459.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.2 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent.
Shipments, up six consecutive months, increased $0.1 billion to $455.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent October increase.
Unfilled orders, up nineteen of the last twenty months, increased $11.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $898.3 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent October increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.16, up from 6.07 in October.
Inventories, up twenty five of the last twenty six months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $609.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.9 percent October increase. The inventories-toshipments ratio was 1.34, up from 1.33 in October.
From the Census Bureau:
New orders for manufactured goods in November, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.2 billion or 1.8 percent to $459.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.2 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent.
Shipments, up six consecutive months, increased $0.1 billion to $455.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent October increase.
Unfilled orders, up nineteen of the last twenty months, increased $11.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $898.3 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent October increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.16, up from 6.07 in October.
Inventories, up twenty five of the last twenty six months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $609.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.9 percent October increase. The inventories-toshipments ratio was 1.34, up from 1.33 in October.
9:51AM :
ALERT:
Bond Markets Flat Through The Morning, Now Considering Hungary Headlines
As far as overnight sessions go, last night's was quiet, and nothing much by way of tradeable data came across since the German Bund Auction gave both EU and Domestic Benchmarks a boost before the NY Session began. Things has been relatively flat until a recent hiccup bumped 10yr yields up about a bp or two. It doesn't look like there's much follow through on this so far, but it bears mentioning as it introduces two potential market movers to the morning mix.
The first of the two contributors to the "hiccup" came in the form of a few wires relating to Hungarian officials statement that the nation would now play ball with the IMF/EU after some general defiance earlier this week. That little spat helped bond markets, and today's headlines are perhaps some form of resolution to concerns that Hungary wouldn't cooperate with the IMF/EU to ensure their central bank is adequately funded.
The second contributor to the spike in 10yr yields may be a rumor that the EIB (European Investment Bank) is said to be preparing a new 3 year bond denominated in British Pounds Sterling (as opposed to, well.... you know... the other currency that the "Euro" zone uses).
10yr yields rose from 1.945 to 1.965 and have fallen back down to around 1.96 currently. MBS are still in the green with Fannie 3.5's up 2 ticks at 102-28--no major drama there. Factory Orders data coming up in about 10 minutes...
The first of the two contributors to the "hiccup" came in the form of a few wires relating to Hungarian officials statement that the nation would now play ball with the IMF/EU after some general defiance earlier this week. That little spat helped bond markets, and today's headlines are perhaps some form of resolution to concerns that Hungary wouldn't cooperate with the IMF/EU to ensure their central bank is adequately funded.
The second contributor to the spike in 10yr yields may be a rumor that the EIB (European Investment Bank) is said to be preparing a new 3 year bond denominated in British Pounds Sterling (as opposed to, well.... you know... the other currency that the "Euro" zone uses).
10yr yields rose from 1.945 to 1.965 and have fallen back down to around 1.96 currently. MBS are still in the green with Fannie 3.5's up 2 ticks at 102-28--no major drama there. Factory Orders data coming up in about 10 minutes...
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. NOV FACTORY ORDERS RISE LARGEST SINCE JULY 2011 (+2.1 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. NOV DURABLES ORDERS REVISED TO +3.7 PCT FROM +3.8 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. NOV FACTORY ORDERS +1.8 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.7) VS OCT -0.2 PCT (PREV -0.4 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS45 - BRENT, U.S. CRUDE FUTURES UP ON NEWS EU REACHED DEAL IN PRINCIPLE TO BAN IRAN OIL IMPORTS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - BRENT CRUDE FUTURES RALLY MORE THAN $1 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EU GOVERNMENTS HAVE REACHED DEAL IN PRINCIPLE TO BAN IMPORTS OF IRANIAN OIL, MORE TALKS NEEDED ON STARTING DATE, OTHER DETAILS -- DIPLOMATS "
AQ : "MSR = mortgage servicing rights"
AQ : "sounds like theyre accounting for loss of MSR value and blaming it on the g-fee hike."
AQ : "30-40bps is a bit crazy."
AQ : "thx. Im curious to find out why they did it now."
Matthew Graham : "BB&T"
AQ : "I read the Day Ahead this AM and noticed a comment about one lender baking in extra gfee. Anyone know what lender that was?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - HUNGARY ECON MIN STATE SEC PLESCHINGER SAYS IT WOULD NOT BE A TRAGEDY IF TALKS LASTED INTO FEBRUARY AS COUNTRY HAS FUNDS TO COVER FIRST REPAYMENT OF FORMER IMF LOAN "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - HUNGARY ECON MIN STATE SEC PLESCHINGER SAYS GOVT AIMS FOR PRECAUTIONARY DEAL WITH LENDERS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- HUNGARY ECON MIN STATE SEC PLESCHINGER AS WE HAVE ANNOUNCED TO MARKETS THAT WE AIM TO REACH DEAL WITH IMF/EU, IT WOULD BE A BAD MESSAGE IF WE COULD NOT REACH A DEAL "
Matthew Graham : "yep. this is sooner than I expected. any lenders who don't jump on board with this today could get fairly slammed"
David Gaffin : "Nice way to start the same New Year, with Congress taking worsening rates to consumers by an 1/8th!"
Ira Selwin : "Just sent that same email to MG his morning David"
David Gaffin : "GM got a note from BBT apologizing for worse pricing than competitors yesterday. Say the GFEE of 10bps is really 30-40 bps on rate sheet and that due to Fannie Delivery of 4/1, had to start now. Anyone else seeing this yet?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US MORTGAGE MARKET INDEX FALLS 4.1 PCT TO 634.6 IN WEEK ENDED DEC 30 -MBA "