Domestic economic data is in slightly shorter supply on Thursday after two more robust days.  But what it lacks in sheer number of reports, it makes up for in other ways, such as scheduled Fed buying in Treasuries as well as 3 Fed speakers.  Fisher and Evans are non-voters and generally represent the opposite ends of the FOMC's spectrum of hawkishness, meaning markets are well-able to predict what these two will say.  Bernanke, however, is always a potential mover, and will be speaking tomorrow in front of the House Budget Committee.

Even so, the order of the day may well be waiting for tomorrow's Jobs data.  With the possible exception of Consumer Confidence, we haven't seen much evidence that this week's economic reports have been significant drivers of trade.  Scheduled Fed buying has been one of the most salient causes for movement on any given day, and beyond that, markets seem to have adopted a default bid for Treasuries and MBS until the next economically soothing/bullish "risk-on" European headline suggests a shift.

Both of this morning's reports hit at 830am.  Productivity and Costs, both seen at +0.8, stood at +2.3 pct and -2.5 pct respectively last time.  Economists polled by Reuters are expected Jobless Claims to hold relatively steady at 375k after a 377k reading last week. 

MBS opened just over 1 tick higher this morning at 103-31 in Fannie 3.5's and 10yr yields are currently just under 1bp lower at 1.8212



Period

Unit

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Monday, January 30


 


08:30

Personal consump real mm

Dec

%

-0.1

+0.1

+0.1

08:30

Personal income mm

Dec

%

+0.5

+0.4

+0.1

08:30

Consumption, adjusted mm

Dec

%

0.0

--

+0.2

08:30

PCE price index mm

Dec

%

+0.1

--

0.0

08:30

Core PCE price index mm

Dec

%

+0.2

+0.1

+0.1

08:30

Midwest manufacturing

Dec

--

87.4

--

85.8

Tuesday, January 31


 


08:30

Employment costs

Q4

%

0.4

0.4

0.3

09:00

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa

Dec

%

-1.3

-0.9

-1.2

09:00

CaseShiller 20 yy

Dec

%

-3.7

-3.3

-3.4

09:00

CaseShiller 20 mm SA

Dec

%

-0.7

-0.5

-0.6

09:45

Chicago PMI Employment

Jan

--

54.7

--

59.2

09:45

Chicago PMI Production

Jan

--

63.8

--

64.9

09:45

Chicago PMI Prices Paid

Jan

--

62.4

--

63.8

09:45

Chicago PMI New Orders

Jan

--

63.6

--

67.1

09:45

Chicago PMI*

Jan

--

60.2

63.0

62.2

10:00

Consumer confidence

Jan

--

61.1

68.0

64.5

Wednesday, February 01


 


07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

753.3

--

775.6

07:00

Mortgage market: change

w/e

%

-2.9

--

-5.0

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

181.7

--

184.8

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

4113.8

--

4265.3

07:00

Refinancing: change

w/e

%

-3.6

--

-5.2

07:00

MBA Purchase: change

w/e

%

-1.7

--

-5.4

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

4.09

--

4.11

07:15

ADP National Employment

Jan

k

170

185

325

10:00

Construction spending

Dec

%

+1.5

0.7

1.2

10:00

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jan

--

54.1

54.4

53.9

10:00

ISM Mfg Prices Paid

Jan

--

55.5

49.0

47.5

Thursday, February 02


 


07:30

Challenger layoffs

Jan

k

--

--

41.7k

08:30

Productivity

Q4

%

--

+0.8

+2.3

08:30

Unit Labor Costs

Q4

%

--

+0.8

-2.5

08:30

Claims 4-week Average

w/e

k

--

--

377.5k

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

--

375

377

08:30

Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

--

3.56

3.554

Friday, February 03


 


08:30

Non-farm payrolls*

Jan

k

--

150

200

08:30

Manufacturing payrolls

Jan

k

--

13

23

08:30

Private Payrolls

Jan

k

--

175

212

08:30

Unemployment rate mm

Jan

%

--

8.5

8.5

08:30

Average workweek hrs

Jan

hr

--

34.4

34.4

10:00

Factory Orders

Dec

%

--

1.5

1.8

10:00

ISM N-Mfg Bus Act

Jan

--

--

56.0

56.2

10:00

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Jan

--

--

53.0

56.2