MBS Live: MBS RECAP
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Pricing as of 4:03 PM EST |
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
3:19PM :
ECON: Consumer Credit Expands More Than Expected
Novembers expansion of total Consumer Credit was revised to +$20.38 bln, very close to the original print. Today's report for December shows only a slight decrease in the pace to $19.31 bln. Economists had been expecting a bigger contraction to $7.7 bln.
Underlying the strength was the biggest expansion in non-revolving credit (auto loans and federal student loans) since 2001. This was offset by a drop in revolving credit from +$5.58 bln to +$2.76 bln.
Stocks hit their highs of the day following the release but bond markets haven't done much with it, not to mention that volume didn't pick up much.
Underlying the strength was the biggest expansion in non-revolving credit (auto loans and federal student loans) since 2001. This was offset by a drop in revolving credit from +$5.58 bln to +$2.76 bln.
Stocks hit their highs of the day following the release but bond markets haven't done much with it, not to mention that volume didn't pick up much.
1:34PM :
ALERT:
3 Year Auction Moves The Whole Stack. Greece Piles On. Negative Reprices
10yr spiked up just after 1pm and MBS prices fell past their 103-19 pivot in Fannie 3.5's. Does that mean that the 3yr note auction is exclusively behind that market movement? Yes and no...
In and of themselves, 2 and 3yr auctions aren't enough to move the whole pile of Treasuries as they ostensibly have today. But given the current backdrop of bond market weakness following last week's NFP, and the fact that any bounce back versus that weakness was largely due to ongoing uncertainty over the Greek bailout negotiations, there's a fair amount of inherent bearishness seeking to run its course within the range in bond markets. This was actually likely to be the case even BEFORE NFP, and now the higher probability scenario is simply playing out.
That means that while the 3yr auction wasn't quite weak enough to justify current losses, it was enough to add on to the pre-existing momentum. News out of Greece is now exacerbating the problem.
At first, it looked like breaking news that today's meeting was postponed until tomorrow would HELP bond markets. Indeed this was the case at first. But then a second wire crossed that clarified the reason for the postponement was that political leaders had yet to get a draft of the bailout agreement. This apparently was less of a concern to the general "risk-on" sentiment compared to other potential reasons for meeting postponement.
MBS are currently trying to dig their heels in at 103-19 and treat those levels as a floor for the rest of the day, and seem to be capable of such things as long as 10yr yields treat 1.99 as a ceiling, a feat they've been trying to demonstrate for the past 15 minutes or so.
Even so, the current level of weakness is very likely enough for a few lenders to be considering reprices for the worse, and just as it was earlier in the day, those risks would increase with prices of Fannie 3.5's falling below 103-19.
In and of themselves, 2 and 3yr auctions aren't enough to move the whole pile of Treasuries as they ostensibly have today. But given the current backdrop of bond market weakness following last week's NFP, and the fact that any bounce back versus that weakness was largely due to ongoing uncertainty over the Greek bailout negotiations, there's a fair amount of inherent bearishness seeking to run its course within the range in bond markets. This was actually likely to be the case even BEFORE NFP, and now the higher probability scenario is simply playing out.
That means that while the 3yr auction wasn't quite weak enough to justify current losses, it was enough to add on to the pre-existing momentum. News out of Greece is now exacerbating the problem.
At first, it looked like breaking news that today's meeting was postponed until tomorrow would HELP bond markets. Indeed this was the case at first. But then a second wire crossed that clarified the reason for the postponement was that political leaders had yet to get a draft of the bailout agreement. This apparently was less of a concern to the general "risk-on" sentiment compared to other potential reasons for meeting postponement.
MBS are currently trying to dig their heels in at 103-19 and treat those levels as a floor for the rest of the day, and seem to be capable of such things as long as 10yr yields treat 1.99 as a ceiling, a feat they've been trying to demonstrate for the past 15 minutes or so.
Even so, the current level of weakness is very likely enough for a few lenders to be considering reprices for the worse, and just as it was earlier in the day, those risks would increase with prices of Fannie 3.5's falling below 103-19.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Michael Tadros : "REPRICE: 3:39 PM - Interbank Worse"
Matthew Graham : "This wire is about 15 minutes old at this point, but potentially contributing to afternoon stock gains as well as firming up the floor under 10yr yields (or ceiling over MBS prices): RTRS - IIF SAYS TALKS ON GREEK BOND SWAP, REFORMS "CONSTRUCTIVE", CONSULTATIONS WITH INVESTORS TO CONTINUE IN PARIS "
Matthew Graham : "Also, Berliner has another piece out today on relative value in an environment where the short end of the curve has been so steady relative to the long end. Great read for those seeking deeper thoughts on capital markets: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/secondary_markets/02062012-relative-performance-duration.aspx"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. DECEMBER CONSUMER CREDIT UP $19.31 BLN VS REVISED $20.38 BLN INCREASE IN NOVEMBER"
Paul Carlin : "REPRICE: 2:18 PM - Wells Fargo Worse"
Matthew Graham : "REPRICE: 2:17 PM - Suntrust Worse"
Tom Schwab : "REPRICE: 2:12 PM - Flagstar Worse"
Dan Clifton : "REPRICE: 1:48 PM - 360 Mortgage Worse"
Brett Boyke : "From what I understand the 20th is the true deadline in order to get eveything in order to issue the debt come March. It looks like they intend to use every minute of it with their can kicking routine"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - GREEK MEETING POSTPONED BECAUSE POLITICAL LEADERS HAVE YET TO GET DRAFT OF BAILOUT AGREEMENT- PARTY OFFICIAL "
Matt Hodges : "seriously, that's just one of the issues they need to get straight, plus tax rate, retirement age, # weeks vacation - they need to understand work in the 21st century"
Matthew Graham : ""um yeah... we'd like to respond to you, but we've already implemented the labor scale-backs you've requested, so it's gonna have to wait""
Matt Hodges : "32 hour work week is over already; legally can not continue until next week"
Matthew Graham : "who could have ever guessed that any sort of negotiations in Greece would run over a previously discussed time frame!? I, for one, and appalled. "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- GREEK POLITICAL LEADERS' MEETING ON BAILOUT PACKAGE POSTPONED TO WEDNESDAY--GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL "
Brett Boyke : "Greece Groundhog Day - Stocks rally on Greek deal hope - Ned, Ned Ryerson, bing!"