MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
102-13 : +0-05
FNMA 4.0
104-18 : +0-02
FNMA 4.5
106-03 : +0-02
FNMA 5.0
107-26 : +0-02
GNMA 3.5
103-26 : +0-01
GNMA 4.0
107-04 : +0-03
GNMA 4.5
108-21 : +0-04
GNMA 5.0
110-10 : +0-02
FHLMC 3.5
102-04 : +0-03
FHLMC 4.0
104-10 : +0-03
FHLMC 4.5
105-26 : +0-02
FHLMC 5.0
107-17 : +0-03
Pricing as of 10:59 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
10:05AM  :  ECON: Philly Fed Index Up Slightly, New Orders/Prices Down
Manufacturing firms responding to the monthly Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity con-tinued to grow at a moderate pace in March. The survey's broad indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained positive. Firms continued to report price pressures, but responses suggest that pressures have eased from the previous month. The survey's broad indicators of future activity remained at levels consistent with continued optimism.

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edged slightly higher, from a reading of 10.2 in February to 12.5, its highest reading since April of last year (see Chart). Indexes for new orders and shipments remained positive but weaker than their February levels. The new orders index decreased 8 points, to 3.3, while the shipments index declined 12 points, to 3.5. The indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders, which recorded slightly positive readings last month, fell back into negative territory this month, suggesting faster deliveries and a decline in unfilled orders.

Firms' responses suggest a slight pickup in levels of employment this month. The current employment index, which has been positive for seven consecutive months, increased 6 points. Twenty-two percent of the firms reported an increase in employment, compared to 15 percent in February. Firms reporting a longer workweek (20 percent) only narrowly outnumbered those reporting a shorter one (17 percent), and the current workweek index decreased 7 points.
9:55AM  :  ALERT: Regaining Some Lost Ground This Morning. Philly Fed on Deck
Things remain shaky, tenuous, nerve-racking, uncertain, unpalatable, and in terms of outright price levels, nauseating. That said, bond markets have generally been able to claw back to slightly better levels than those seen at the open and are currently contending with pivot points at yesterday's weakest levels.

In terms of 10yr yields, references to "2.29" are more appropriately referring to 2.285-ish. So 10's are really just getting to their first test of this pivot presently.

MBS had been contending with a similar pivot at 102-04 and so far, look to be breaking it with current prices at 102-06, down only 3 ticks from yesterday's 5pm levels and actually 2 ticks improved from yesterday's 3pm levels.

More than any of the economic data, bond markets are getting a lift from short covering among the more tactical (shorter term considerations, i.e. hedge funds and CTA's [commodity trading advisors, etc..) trading crowd, leaving the door open for the "real money" crowd (unlevered, and generally more strategic concerns such as insurance/pension funds and banks) to come back in on the long side of the market.

We hope they're not coming in too soon as the 2.29 pivot, although a great choice, isn't as safe a choice as the 2.42 absolute 7 month ceiling. We're reasonably sure we'll bounce back to lower yields, but we're not exactly sure when. We hope it will be today for the sake of some rate sheet relief with our audience in mind, but are a bit hesitant to "promise" that it's on the way.

To that end, hopefully the Philly Fed survey out in a few minutes will be informative, and be able to muster a little extra bid-side despite the general lack of economic data impact on a market that's mostly trading technically.
8:45AM  :  ECON: Empire State Manufacturing Higher Than Expected
* Empire State Index 20.21 vs 17.50 consensus and 19.53 in Feb
* Employment component up to 13.58 vs 11.76 last time
* Big jump in prices paid from 25.88 to 50.62
* Prices Paid Highest since June 2011
* Overall Index highest since June 2010

The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State expanded at a moderate pace. The general business conditions index was little changed at 20.2, its fourth consecutive positive reading.

The new orders and shipments indexes were both positive but slightly lower, indicating continued growth in orders and shipments, though at a somewhat slower pace than in the last month.

The prices paid index rose a steep 25 points to 50.6, its highest level since summer 2011, and the prices received index was positive but two points lower than in February.

Employment indexes rose and indicated continued growth in both employment levels and the average workweek.

Indexes for the six-month outlook, though generally somewhat lower than they were last month, conveyed a high degree of optimism, and the capital spending index rose to its highest level in more than a year.
8:39AM  :  ECON: Inflation Cooler Than Expected At Producer Level
*PPI +0.4 vs +0.5 consensus and +0.1 last month
* Core up 0.2 as expected and better than Jan's +0.4
* Smallest rise since Sept 2011
* Year over year, smallest rise since 8/2010

The Producer Price Index for finished goods advanced 0.4 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Finished goods prices rose 0.1 percent in January and decreased 0.1 percent in December. At the earlier stages of processing, the index for intermediate goods moved up 0.7 percent and crude goods prices increased 0.4 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the finished goods index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012, the smallest year-over-year rise since a similar 3.3-percent advance in August 2010.
8:35AM  :  ECON: Jobless Claims Slightly Lower Than Expected
*Claims at 351k vs 356k consensus
*Previous week revised higher to 365k from 362k
*4 week average flat at 355,750

In the week ending March 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 365,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 355,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending March 3, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.7 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Mach 3, was 3,343,000, a decrease of 81,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,424,000.

The 4-week moving average was 3,394,250, a decrease of 25,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,419,500.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Ira Selwin  :  "REPRICE: 10:18 AM - Wells Fargo Better"
Adam Dahill  :  "green yay! now i can get out of bed. seeing the 10yr over 2.3 last night made so very sad :("
Matthew Graham  :  "CK. always public knowledge: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm"
Chris Kopec  :  "Do we have Fed activity (twist) going on?"
Matthew Graham  :  "man... the markets really beat you into submission don't they? Rising 2 ticks to 102-10 feels like a big victory... pretty interesting considering falling to 103-10 felt like a big loss a few days ago"
MMNJ  :  "One fo the topics that was brought up at the MBA Convention in NJ: is anyone concerned (as a banker) about their warehouse company allowing for 150LTV HARP2.0 loans on their line? Have heard that some are saying they will not allow for it"
Victor Burek  :  "everything more expensive in NY"
Victor Burek  :  "yep"
Steven Stone  :  "look at that big drop in prices paid...wasnt there a big increase in prices paid in empire?"
James Rafuse  :  "Up...Bring it on!"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PHILADELPHIA FED EMPLOYMENT INDEX MARCH 6.8 VS FEB 1.1 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PHILADELPHIA FED PRICES PAID INDEX MARCH 18.7 VS FEB 38.7 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PHILADELPHIA FED NEW ORDERS INDEX MARCH 3.3 VS FEB 11.7 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS CONDITIONS MARCH 12.5 (CONSENSUS 12.0) VS FEB 10.2 "
Ken Crute  :  "over 102 feels like a victory "
Mike Drews  :  "amazing how good only being down -03 ticks feels right now"
Brent Borcherding  :  "That'll drive the conspiracy theorists nuts."
Matthew Graham  :  "China from $1.1519 to 1.1585 trillion and Japan from $1.0582 to $1.0790"
Matthew Graham  :  "one last thing on the TIC data: Chin and Japan both increased US holdings in Jan. "
Matt Hodges  :  "it seems like FHA intentionally schedules ML's to be effective on Sundays, so there's no confusion about whether if it's effective on Monday, can you grandfather in... maybe similar with AUS?"
Matthew Graham  :  "which is odd, considering that's a Saturday"
Matthew Graham  :  "3/17 if i remember correctly"
Tony Cardinal  :  "Aus' update today too?"
Matthew Graham  :  "638k 10yr contracts so far... as big as some entire days"
Scott Valins  :  "any volume MG?"
Jill Statz  :  "Icon (wholesale) will acct transfered cert from Radian, MGIC and Genworth"
David Gaffin  :  "Any correspondent lender doing HARP with MI?"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "yes"
James Rafuse  :  "regardless of who presently services the note?"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "Niether is going above 125 yeat"
Jill Statz  :  "Icon is accepting apps and United Wholesale is doing them already"
James Rafuse  :  "Is any lender doing HARP 2.0 "open access" yet?"
B-C  :  "This spike in rates will do wonders for the June streamlines that were to save 2-3 million eligible homeowners. I bet Obama wont make sure that hits the headlines"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2011 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE INDEX 20.21 IN MARCH (CONSENSUS 17.50) VS 19.53 IN FEBRUARY "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US FEB YEAR-OVER-YEAR PPI RISE SMALLEST SINCE AUG 2010 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. FEB PPI EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.2 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT), VS JAN +0.4 PCT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. FEB PPI +0.4 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.5 PCT), VS JAN +0.1 PCT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.343 MLN (CON. 3.410 MLN) MARCH 3 WEEK FROM 3.424 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.416 MLN) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 351,000 MARCH 10 WEEK (CONSENSUS 356,000) FROM 365,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 362,000) "
Matthew Graham  :  ""We often refer to markets "digesting" economic data, and indeed, it's difficult to digest much of anything when you've been gutted.""
Steven Stone  :  "pray for a rise in claims at 830...maybe that stops the bleeding"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "This is unreal. Selling off again and we have not even opened yet"