This week's data calendar is exceptionally light with the exception of Fed speakers and a round of Treasury Auctions. The Fed-speak could prove somewhat more interesting than normal given that "to QE3 or not to QE3" is more dependent on economic data than it had been previously.
Perhaps then, some FOMC members will see fit to share their stance on how last week's lackluster Non-Farm Payrolls print might affect the QE3 outlook. We're not expecting much more than the generic stuff that made the rounds last week, but perhaps we'll see a small increase in the level of concern.
The other key data of the week lies in the Treasury auction cycle; this time the 3/10/30yr version. 3yr auctions tend not to have much of an impact on production MBS, but 10's certainly do and 30's aren't too far behind. As such, until the 10yr auction hits on Wednesday, things are extremely quiet.
Monday
Scheduled Fed "Twist" Buying in Treasuries from 10:15-11:00am along with reaction to European elections (so far, positive for bond markets) are the highlights of the morning. Consumer Credit is relatively inconsequential and doesn't hit until 3pm anyway.
Tuesday
Although there is "stuff" on the calendar, we're not big fans of any of it as being distinctly market moving.
Wednesday
Not only does Wednesday mark the first meaningful Treasury Auction, but also hosts the busiest day of the week for Fed speakers. Kocherlakota, Pianalto, and Plosser all speak between 10am and Noon. Economic data gets slightly less inconsequential with Wholesale Inventories at 10am.
Thursday
Whereas Wednesday's claim to fame was the first major auction of the week, Thursday's will be the first major economic data. In fact, all three of the reports slated for 8:30am are bigger-ticket items than any of the week's previous econ although International Trade is generally regarded as the bigger deal. Bernanke speaks an hour later and the 30yr Bond Auction hits at 1pm.
Friday
Any excitement related to scheduled events is likely to be waning after Thursday's packed calendar. Friday is sparse with just Producer Prices at 8:30am and Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am
Week Of Mon, May 7 2012
- Fri, May 11 2012 Time Event Period Unit Forecast Prior Actual Mon, May 7 15:00 Consumer
Credit Mar Bl +9.8 +8.73 -- Tue, May 8 13:00 3yr
Treasury Note Auction -- -- -- -- -- Wed, May 9 07:00 Mortgage
market index w/e -- -- 697.7 698.2 07:00 Refinancing
Index w/e -- -- 3715.2 3687.7 10:00 Wholesale
Inventories Mar pct +0.6 +0.9 -- 10:00 Wholesale
Sales Mar Pct +0.7 +1.2 -- 13:00 10yr
Treasury Note Auction -- -- -- -- -- Thu, May 10 08:30 International
Trade Mar Bln -50.0 -46.03 - 08:30 Initial
Jobless Claims w/e k 370 365 -- 08:30 Import
Prices Apr Pct -0.1 +1.3 -- 08:30 Export
Prices Apr Pct +0.2 +0.8 -- 14:00 Federal
Budget Apr -- 55.5 56.0 53.5 13:00 30yr
Treasury Bond Auction -- -- -- -- -- Fri, May 11 08:30 Producer
Price Index mm Apr Pct 0.0 0.0 -- 09:55 Consumer
Sentiment May -- 76.4 8.2 76.4 * mm:
month over month | yy: year over year | qq: quarter over quarter *
(n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI:
"Purchasing Managers Index"