Monday's economic calendar was completely blank, leaving markets to do what they likely would have done anyway, which was to trade the Spanish bailout news from the weekend. When all was said and done, MBS prices and 10yr yields alike, landed somewhere between the highs and lows of Friday's session. For MBS, that was closer to the highs, although given that yesterday's close coincided with monthly settlement for Fannie and Freddie 30yr's, "front-month" prices did, in fact, end up retracing roughly the same amount of Friday's weakness as Treasuries.
Today's calendar is only slightly better than blank, but does include the first instances of economic data for the week as well as the first Treasury note auction in the form of the 3yr at 1pm. 3's have been almost as unimportant and uninspiring to MBS as 2s for quite some time. If 3s register any sort of response in the longer end of the yield curve and MBS, it's not likely to be much.
The economic data of the morning isn't much better as the only recognizable report of the morning is Import/Export Prices, and we're pretty sure no one cares. For the record, we're aware of other scheduled data such as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, ICSC Store Sales, and the IBD Economic Optimism Index, but these things haven't ever moved MBS markets.
Other events include scheduled Fed "Twist" buying from 10:15am to 11:00am in the 24-30yr maturity range as well as FOMC voter Tarullo (proponent of MBS-inclusive QE) speaking on the role of Asia in global financial challenges at 11:30. The monthly Treasury Budget is seen pulling back to negative after it's first positive month since September 2008.
|
Week Of Mon, Jun 11 2012 - Fri, Jun 15 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Tue, Jun 12 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Import prices mm |
May |
% |
-1.1 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
14:00 |
Federal budget, $ |
May |
bl |
-122.5 |
+59.12 |
-- |
|
Wed, Jun 13 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
804.8 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4476.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.6 |
-0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core mm |
May |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core yy |
May |
% |
+2.8 |
+2.7 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
May |
% |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
May |
% |
0.0 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
PPI inflation yy, NSA |
May |
% |
1.1 |
1.9 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Apr |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.3 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
10-yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thu, Jun 14 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, |
May |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
CPI yy, |
May |
% |
+2.2 |
+2.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Consumer Prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Consumer Prices yy |
May |
% |
+1.8 |
+2.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
375 |
377 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.27 |
3.293 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Current Account |
Q1 |
$bln |
-132.1 |
-124.11 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Jun 15 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jun |
-- |
14.0 |
17.09 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
Foreign buying, T-bonds |
Apr |
bl |
-- |
20.47 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
Overall net capital flows |
Apr |
bl |
-- |
36.2 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
May |
% |
79.2 |
79.2 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
May |
% |
+0.1 |
+1.1 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Jun |
-- |
77.5 |
79.3 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Jun |
-- |
85.3 |
87.2 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Jun |
-- |
71.8 |
74.3 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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