Normally, the recap of the morning's economic data comes out in the MBS Mid-Day commentary shortly after 11am, and while most of the data below will be in that recap, we wanted to share it a bit earlier than normal due to the big miss and concomitant big movements in bond markets. We still have ISM data and Construction Spending coming up in moments, but here's a look at the 8:30am NFP data and the market reaction:
* NFP +69k vs +150k expectations
* Previous NFP revised from +115k to +77k
* March NFP Revised from +154k to +143k
* Smallest gain since +54k in May 2011
* Unemployment 8.2 pct vs 8.1 pct consensus
Bottom line, this is a big miss for NFP. Read the implications regarding "Fedspectations" HERE.
Even the BLS has to try to spin this one in a positive light:
"Nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), and the unemployment rate
was essentially unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. " (read the full report)
"Little changed" from a HUGE DOWNWARD REVISION... and WAY OFF consensus. The fact that 10yr yields are trading at 1.45 is no surprise. If anything, we're surprised they're not trading a bit lower. MBS lagging the TSY rally is also no surprise. Fannie 3.0's doing much better than 3.5's as this NFP result implies increased market share for the former into the future. 3's are up 17 ticks at 103-02 and 3.5's are up 10 ticks at 105-10.