In case anyone or anything needed to reemphasize the extent to which Wednesday's FOMC events dominate this week, take yesterday's trading for example. Markets... Didn't... Move... If domestic markets were willing to stay in more of a lock-step with European guidance givers, we might have seen Treasuries and MBS perform better than they did. As it stands, we witnessed one of the most eerily sideways trading days given the circumstances that we can recall--a feat that has most to do with the upcoming FOMC festivities.
The fact that the Fed Announcement sticks out like a sore thumb on Wednesday due to it's own merits (s one thing. But even if it wasn't this hotly anticipated event with additional easing apparently on the table (whether it's extending twist or new buying, markets are curious and pros don't readily agree) it would still stick out due to the appalling lack of other data this week.
We're hesitant to confidently declare that Greek drama is "out of the way" for the week, but certainly, the biggest question was answered over the weekend. Working out the kinks of "government formation" could cause some pitching and rolling in European markets, but we've already seen just how dampened the effect of European movement is by the time it reaches us so far this week (Bunds almost 5 bps lower vs TSYs unchanged 3pm Friday vs 3pm Monday). In other words, Greek drama may indeed be out of the way.
All of this to say that this morning's domestic data, yet again, matters very little in the big picture. In fact, it's a mere speck of dust in Whoville next to the Horton that is Wednesday's FOMC. Housing Starts might otherwise be somewhat interesting, but would have to be doing something more significant like testing their pre-meltdown lows (see blue line in chart below) in order to get much of a response. Regardless of the market-based response, it is perhaps worth noting that Starts have been doing a better job holding near their highs in the current leg of what looks like an uptrend in its infancy (red lines)
Week Of Mon, Jun 18 2012 - Fri, Jun 22 2012 |
||||||
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
Mon, Jun 18 |
||||||
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jun |
-- |
29 |
29 |
-- |
Tue, Jun 19 |
||||||
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
May |
ml |
0.725 |
0.717 |
-- |
08:30 |
House starts mm: change |
May |
% |
-- |
2.6 |
-- |
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
May |
ml |
0.730 |
0.723 |
-- |
08:30 |
Build permits: change mm |
May |
% |
-- |
-6.0 |
-- |
Wed, Jun 20 |
||||||
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
949.4 |
-- |
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
5334.3 |
-- |
12:30 |
FOMC rate decision |
N/A |
% |
-- |
0.25 |
-- |
Thu, Jun 21 |
||||||
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
380 |
386 |
-- |
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.280 |
3.278 |
-- |
10:00 |
Leading index chg mm |
May |
% |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
-- |
10:00 |
Monthly Home Price mm |
Apr |
% |
-- |
1.8 |
-- |
10:00 |
Philly Fed Index |
Jun |
% |
1.0 |
-5.8 |
-- |
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
May |
ml |
4.59 |
4.62 |
-- |
10:00 |
Exist. home sales % chg |
May |
% |
-1.5 |
3.4 |
-- |
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |