As I check my mental inventory of recent headline titles, I find it interesting and scary that the only other times that compare historically have been the BIG moves like the mid-2013 taper tantrum.   The difference is that the taper tantrum was one big, logical thing.  Markets came to terms with what was going on in May and June, and quickly set about pricing Fed bond buying out of the equation.  It was fairly tidy in retrospect.

The current move is more of a perfect storm of disparate factors.  At the heart of that storm, clearly, is an ongoing correction in European bond markets.  Rates in Europe had moved relentlessly lower throughout 2014 and the first part of 2015 as investors accounted for the likely effects of ECB Quantitative Easing.  For the past three weeks, European rates have been spiking at a break-neck pace.  It's an aggressive enough move to suggest traders are entertaining the possibility that the global rate rally has bottomed out for now.  I say "entertaining the possibility" because if they were sure, 10yr Treasuries would be closer to 3.0% (If that sounds crazy to you, consider that we were at 1.90 just two weeks ago and are now up to 2.29!).

Other ingredients in this storm add to uncertainty.  The tradeflow story is big.  If everyone was essentially on the same page about the long term EU-QE rally, there have been an awful lot of bullish bond market bets to unwind.  You might hear this referred to as a pain trade or capitulation.  By any name, it is the chief ingredient in snowball selling where a change in price based on one trade triggers another trade, which in turn changes the price and triggers another. 

Tradeflow momentum has clearly been exacerbated this week by supply concerns.  Normally when we talk about supply it's with respect to Treasury auctions or new MBS issuance.  But corporate bonds have increasingly stolen the spotlight there.  Corporate issuance has been unabashedly huge.  2015 is on a record pace following 2014's record.  Today alone saw over $10bln in issuance.  Not only does this add supply to the bond marketplace, but it does at least 2 other bad things.  1st: it raises concerns that more companies will rush to issue debt before rates keep going up.  2nd: the issuance process itself often relies Treasuries being sold as part of the hedging process, thus adding insult (an immediate negative tradeflow used in the rate-lock process) to injury (the anticipated negative tradeflows from investors selling Treasuries in order to purchase the new corporate debt).

On top of all that, there's the constant ebb and flow of Fed rate hike expectations.  This is actually not the first thing on the bond market's mind for once, but it does have an effect.

It's a serious sell-off that could get much worse and even put out head-fakes as if it will get better.  It should be taken seriously until/unless it's clearly defeated.  To be sure, we're not there yet.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-19 : -0-28
FNMA 3.5
103-31 : -0-21
FNMA 4.0
106-13 : -0-14
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6200 : +0.0480
10 YR
2.2870 : +0.1446
30 YR
3.0510 : +0.1553
Pricing as of 5/11/15 5:41PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:39PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Additional Reprices are Guaranteed
12:21PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Widespread Negative Reprices Now Likely
11:04AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
10:47AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk on the Horizon for Some Lenders
9:39AM  :  Bond Markets Fighting to Stay Under 2.20

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "I was looking at some old emails the other day. Email from MG on 1/8--Here is what he said, "but rates could go lower and it has nothing to do with oil. Rates will keep going lower until Europe turns a corner.""
Matthew Graham  :  "2.25 is an important technical level. As with any technical level, it's never going to be a guaranteed tipping point, but hitting the 3pm close over 2.25 for 2 days in a row would be a strong vote in favor of more selling. "
David de Courcy  :  "Hey MG. I read earlier on this chat that 2.25 is the tipping point. Do you concur with that?"
Charles Tadros  :  "MG....the article that excerpt is from was enough to persuade me to lock up....ur the man "
Matthew Graham  :  ""The game is not over. We didn't just miraculously win against all odds. The sell-off that's plagued bond markets for the past 2 weeks can't yet be assumed to be defeated. ""
Matthew Graham  :  "sure, the first clue would be when I write a Friday recap with a headline like "Token Post-NFP Rally Doesn't Make Us Safe""
David de Courcy  :  "so MG..can you please tell us when we are going to have Mondays like this. I would have come home early from the Clippers game last night if I knew this was coming..."
Matthew Graham  :  "not too terribly much AP. More to do with the same old one-two punch from Europe and corporate issuance. "
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "how much of this red is attributable to Williams' statements?"