Nice rally today. 10yr yields hit their lowest levels since June 5th and MBS hit their 'roll-adjusted' highs over the same time frame. Gains were in place from the start of the overnight session, and mid-morning weakness can retrospectively be blamed on Europe. After Europe closed, the rally resumed and we're heading out at the best levels here at the end of the session.
There are some caveats though.
First of all, it was a low-volume, low-liquidity day. This exaggerates the movement in bond markets. Light volume accomplishes this by creating an environment where an average-sized trade represents a bigger piece of the day's total action. Low liquidity accomplishes this because it forces traders to "take what they can get" in cases where there aren't enough counterparties for a trade they need to make.
Finally, from a technical standpoint, the big-picture inflection point has been the 2.28-2.31 range. With yields hitting lows of 2.307 today, we're not even testing the inflection point yet. This keeps the risk alive that yields will end up "confirming" this inflection with a bounce higher tomorrow or some time soon. There's no rule that says bond markets have to behave like this though. Ultimately, the momentum (or lack thereof) will probably have most to do with what the Fed says, how the forecasts evolve, and Yellen's press conference.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 99-22 : +0-10 | FNMA 3.5 103-03 : +0-09 | FNMA 4.0 105-30 : +0-07 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.6900 : -0.0160 | 10 YR 2.3110 : -0.0480 | 30 YR 3.0410 : -0.0470 |
Pricing as of 6/16/15 4:54PMEST |