Looking at charts, we might well conclude that bond market trading remains uneventful. This wouldn't be a surprise, after all, considering the heretofore theme of 'summer doldrums' over the past week. But developments behind the scenes make the flatness more meaningful.
The most noticeable development isn't actually behind the scenes. In fact, it's rather hard to miss today. Headlines abound regarding the "strongest Existing Home Sales in 8 years" and "record high home prices." Not only that, but the data came in stronger than expected--a fact that typically is net-negative for bond prices. Despite that, bonds prices held their ground and improved after the data. There was also pressure from 'behind-the-scenes' factors surrounding another uptick in corporate debt issuance (which generally pushes rates higher).
In this sense, the flatness see in the day-over-day change is a bigger victory than yesterday's tradeflow-driven improvements. Simply put, we're holding our ground despite fundamentals (existing sales) and supply/demand technicals (corporate issuance) suggesting weakness. By comparison, yesterday's strength was more serendipitous and less meaningful.
Gains have been ebbing into the afternoon, but for now, MBS and Treasuries are still in modestly positive territory.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 99-26 : +0-02 | FNMA 3.5 103-06 : +0-01 | FNMA 4.0 106-01 : +0-03 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.7060 : +0.0240 | 10 YR 2.3240 : -0.0070 | 30 YR 3.0430 : -0.0240 |
Pricing as of 7/22/15 1:23PMEST |