The overnight session was both informative and positive for bond markets. The informative part was the technical floor seen in 10yr yields (2.20) and in German Bunds (.56) for that matter. Both of the world's predominant bond market benchmarks bottomed out at the same yields that blocked yesterday's progress. At that point, sellers stepped in, sensing that we'd seen the bottom of our near-term range.
The weakness didn't last long before oil prices and falling stocks were contributing to a flight-to-safety trade for the 2nd day in a row. Oil continues to be the more interesting of the 2, with another relatively brisk move to new 6-year lows (close to 7 year lows, actually). At today's lows, a barrel of oil was as cheap as $36.64--twice as cheap as the average prepper's 55 gallon barrel of water.
Bunds and Treasuries were dragged lower in yield heading into the domestic session. This resulted in stronger opening levels for both MBS and Treasuries. Notably though, trading levels never made it past yesterday's best levels. Deterrence came in the form of a big bounce in Oil although Bond markets had already clearly rejected the technical break before oil fully recovered. Serving as a counterpoint to that technical resistance, we have technical support overhead (in 10yr yields) at 2.24. Now it's a bit of a waiting game to see if we break the floor or ceiling first.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-12 : +0-01 | FNMA 3.5 103-18 : +0-01 | FNMA 4.0 106-04 : +0-00 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.9430 : +0.0080 | 10 YR 2.2320 : -0.0040 | 30 YR 2.9640 : -0.0010 |
Pricing as of 12/8/15 2:11PMEST |