Today didn't add much to the bigger picture.  With the Fed hike so well telegraphed and the weakness over the previous 3 days, we may well have assumed a bit of defensiveness in bond markets heading into the Fed Announcement.  With today's rally bringing us right back to the 21-day moving average (something I've been pointing out as the bond market's pre-Fed glide path), we're essentially right where we have been since mid November.

Cruising sideways-to-slightly-lower with a 10yr yield in the 2.2's isn't the worst place to be, but it's not necessarily where we will be going forward.  The calendar is the wild card as the holidays arrive in full force tomorrow afternoon.  Bottom line: yes we rallied nicely after Fed day, but this is just a return to the mid-point and not necessarily an indication that the Fed hike will instantly kick-off a paradoxical rate rally. 

Today's data fell on deaf ears as traders were too busy watching tradeflows.  Jobless Claims were slightly stronger (271k vs 275k) and Philly Fed was much weaker (-5.9 vs 1.5).  The Fed conducted its first open market operations at the new, higher rate, and the level of participation was barely changed.  But there again, there could be 'year-end effects' in play here (financial firms that trade with the Fed have less flexibility and like to keep more assets on their own balance sheets), so we'll have to wait and see how things shake out in January before getting too excited.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-32 : +0-12
FNMA 3.5
103-04 : +0-09
FNMA 4.0
105-23 : +0-05
Treasuries
2 YR
0.9880 : -0.0210
10 YR
2.2250 : -0.0727
30 YR
2.9290 : -0.0760
Pricing as of 12/17/15 5:44PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:53AM  :  The Morning After: Biggest Move Isn't in U.S.

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Also vb, the 21-day moving average I've mentioned a few times as being the pre-Fed glide path is right at 2.231 today. So we have yet to make a definitive break in either direction in the bigger picture, and are currently almost perfectly in the middle of the range."
Matthew Graham  :  "funny you should ask that right at this very moment considering the blatant pivot between early Dec and recent lows right around 2.23%"
Victor Burek  :  "mg...what key level on 10yr you watching?"
Michael Baker  :  "Back to par on 3.0 (Maybe many lenders have held a conservative stance until they see some follow through with today's action?)"
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "I think lenders were extra aggressive yesterday trying to get some last minute locks before the unknown"
Broker Guy17  :  "I am surprised pricing is no better than yesterday morning with my lenders"