If you've been tuned in to any reasonable extent--and no one would blame you if you weren't--you're already well aware that Bonds have been on fire so far in 2016. The fuel for that fire has been a nearly limitless supply of stock market negativity and oil price declines. In percentage terms, it's actually the worst January on record for equities markets.
Though I know we're beating on a dead horse, the theme is theme. That money from the massive equities/commodities selling needs somewhere to go, and bonds get the nod. They will continue to get the nod until massive equities/commodities selling is no longer churning up money that seeks safe havens. There might be a minor divergence between stocks/bonds/oil in the shorter term, but so far, these instances have proved to be the fleeting exceptions to an otherwise fairly consistent rule.
Today brings the Consumer Price Index and Housing Starts data. Of course no one will much care or notice if stocks/oil happen to be in the throes of a big move when the data comes out. Even if stocks are steady, it still wouldn't necessarily be a surprise for the economic data to be less than inspiring, simply because bonds will be waiting for stocks/oil to make a move. It won't always be like this, but it is now.
MBS | FNMA 3.5 103-30 : +0-00 | ||
Treasuries | 10 YR 1.9860 : -0.0500 | ||
Pricing as of 1/20/16 7:30AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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