Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape, but soon succumbed to a steamroller of equity market positivity in the European session.  Right when Europe opened, it was off to the races for European equities markets with the typical amount of spillover into domestic stock futures.  Oil was arguably a part of the move as well, especially considering various headlines suggesting OPEC is ready to begin possibly thinking about starting the early phases of the inception of a conversation about cutting oil supply.  And yes, it's about that noncommittal.

Still, Oil and stocks surged and bond yields followed the market's broader move back in a more "risk-friendly" direction.  10yr yields found support at the ever-so-important 1.84% ceiling (to whatever extent individual trading levels can have a sort of magical importance).  Yields bounced incessantly at those levels both before the FOMC Minutes and once more afterward for good measure.

We're left with a judgment call to make.  Did we just witness bond markets finally putting their foot down in the face of the recent selling pressure?  Or was this merely the logical technical level for a consolidation before more selling?  Locking is the safer play just in case the latter comes to pass, but the former suggests we keep a candle or 2 burning.  As an aside, MBS outperformed again, which is typical on Treasury sell-off days--especially when corporate bond issuance is higher (and it has been).  Tomorrow will be very telling.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-06 : -0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8160 : +0.0390
Pricing as of 2/17/16 5:46PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:09PM  :  Tepid Bond Market Improvement Following FOMC Minutes
1:29PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Remains
10:35AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Increasingly Possible
10:11AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: On The Edge of Negative Reprice Territory for Some Lenders
8:53AM  :  Bond Markets Weaker After Data, But Still Fighting for Support

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
philip zajicek  :  "Here's hoping we follow the past year's trend."
Matthew Graham  :  "the past few days (Friday through Wednesday) actually look very similar to the Friday through Wednesday on MLK weekend in 2015. The ensuing Thursday saw even more weakness followed by a rally back to strongest levels by the end of the month. Past precedent doesn't equal future performance, but just in case that's of interest to you, there you go."
Matthew Graham  :  "Much less clearly-delineated technicals above 1.84. Cases could be made for 1.88 (21-day moving average) and historical pivot points at 1.90-1.95. The similar bounce in January 2015 hit 1.95 intraday and closed at 1.90."
Mark Preston  :  "MG, if we break 1.84 what's the next technical level?"
Michael Dormer  :  "I would infer some significant reasons for the resistance, given where we "should be.""
Matthew Graham  :  "No, the reaction doesn't line up with the minutes."
Michael Dormer  :  "MG, is the tepid market reaction in line with the apparently dovishness of comments, in your opinion?"
Michael Dormer  :  "Not much market reaction to comments."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED POLICYMAKERS VIEWED EFFECTS OF RECENT FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS, IF SUSTAINED, AS POSSIBLY BEING ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT TO FURTHER MONETARY POLICY TIGHTENING"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- A NUMBER OF FED POLICYMAKERS VIEWED THE RISKS TO THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AS BEING TO THE DOWNSIDE, REITERATED NEED TO SEE DIRECT EVIDENCE OF MOVE TOWARD FED'S 2 PERCENT TARGET"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - SOME FED POLICYMAKERS WERE DOUBTFUL THAT LONGER-RUN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL-ANCHORED"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- SOME FED POLICYMAKERS VIEWED RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AS INDICATING RISKS TO OUTLOOK NO LONGER BALANCED"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED POLICYMAKERS SAID RECENT TIGHTENING OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, IF SUSTAINED, COULD HELP AMPLIFY DOWNSIDE RISKS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED POLICYMAKERS SAID GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS HAD INCREASED UNCERTAINTY FOR U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FEDERAL RESERVE POLICYMAKERS DISCUSSED ALTERING THE APPROPRIATE PATH FOR THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - MINUTES FROM JANUARY POLICY MEETING"