- Not only have bonds confirmed the recent move back into "the range," they've kept going strong
- 10yr yields hit 1.72, down 4.2bps, Fannie 3.0s up to 102-26 (+5 ticks)
- Rates are really close to 3-year lows
- Data itself didn't matter directly, but GDP revisions did, almost as much as Bunds
Today's gains were primarily a story of German Bunds, which is the benchmark of the European bond market. Bunds rallied for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being a glut of almost universally weaker economic data. This combined with several headlines (even Greece made a guest appearance as a market mover) to bring Bund yields very close to their all-time lows (.082 vs .049... way within striking distance).
The pervasive global bond market rally was reinvigorated 3 weeks ago after the FOMC Announcement. We'll talk more about why the Fed in the US is helping global rates move lower tomorrow. For today, the important piece is that US bond markets have been trying to catch up with that move. Yellen's speech lowered a barrier to those efforts last week and the ensuing trade has been strong.
Most of the gains were intact from the overnight session, but after the trade deficit data came out weaker than expected, several major firms revised GDP forecasts lower. This, in turn, put more pressure on stocks, and helped bonds improve even more.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 102-26 : +0-05 | ||
Treasuries | 10 YR 1.7200 : -0.0590 | ||
Pricing as of 4/5/16 5:27PMEST |