• 10yr yields finally broke 1.80% ceiling, and moved quickly to break 1.84% after that
  • Big gains in oil definitely played a part, but technicals and momentum were just as guilty
  • Biggest day of losses in more than a month for Treasuries
  • Biggest move higher in more than a month for Mortgage Rates

Moments after the noon hour, a snowball of bond selling began rolling, bringing prices down at the fastest pace in more than a month for both MBS and Treasuries.  

Sometimes, snowballs form serendipitously with a few bigger-than-normal trades in the same direction.  When that happens near a technical boundary, it can set off a chain reaction where one trade raises yields just enough for a few other traders to hit their stop-loss targets (the jargon term is "stopped out").  Those traders then sell, causing yields to rise enough to stop out the next few traders in line, thus perpetuating the cycle of selling.  The presence of the technical boundary just means there's a much bigger group of traders about to stopped out by the next bit of weakness.  From there, other classes of traders may sell opportunistically, simply because they see other traders getting stopped out and recognize that the momentum will likely continue.  

The presence of the technical boundary just means there's a much bigger group of traders about to stopped out by the next bit of weakness.  From there, other classes of traders may sell opportunistically, simply because they see other traders getting stopped out and recognize that the momentum will likely continue.  

This is a classic snowball, but it can also happen when traders are given a quick push by economic data, headlines, or other cues.  Looking around today's snowball for clues as to its origin, we definitely see some oily fingerprints.  Indeed, oil prices surged today, and we're well aware that's a net negative for bond markets, all things being equal. 

All things were not equal though.  The oil rally and bond market sell-off weren't perfectly connected.  In fact, if we consider the highs and lows in oil and bonds from yesterday through noon today, oil was already half-way done with its move higher while bond yields had scarcely started.  By 2pm, oil was essentially done with its move higher and 10yr yields would still rise another 4bps.

I would think of oil today as more of a negative backdrop for bond trading.  The more immediate issue heading into the noon hour was a reversal in European markets.  The DAX surged to its highest close of the year and German 10yr yields hit firm technical resistance at 0.14 before  bouncing back up to 0.17 by the close.  Now, that's scarcely on par with the move seen in US bond markets, but it was another source of determined trading momentum that came at a time when US bond markets were vulnerable.  

Another feather in the cap of the European thesis is the fact that tomorrow morning is an ECB Policy Announcement, including a press conference with Mario Draghi.  Historically, these can be some of the biggest market movers around--in the same league as NFP (back when it mattered) and FOMC Announcements.  There's some small chance that today's weakness was a pre-Draghi market head-fake, but the bigger risk is that we just broke out of the "golden era" range marked by 10yr yields of 1.84% and below.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-09 : -0-08
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8450 : +0.0620
Pricing as of 4/20/16 7:04PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:45PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds in Full-Snowball Mode; Lock if You Got 'Em
2:12PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: If You Haven't Seen a Reprice Yet, You Probably Will
12:44PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Increasingly Likely
12:02PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing as Bonds Hit Weakest Levels
10:20AM  :  Quietly Holding Yesterday's Range After Overnight Rally

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Mark Zdenovec  :  "I love this site MG!"
Matthew Graham  :  "This has been updated with more dialogue for those of you wondering what is going on. Please also note that going forward, The Huddle will always be the best/first place to check. I designed it specifically to be a one-stop-shop for anyone needing to get up to speed on market movement quickly. View MBS Huddle"
Kent Taylor  :  "Signed up for Huddle - looks good MG"
Matthew Graham  :  "and the most current version is pinned at the top of the news stream"
Matthew Graham  :  "The MBS Huddle
Matthew Graham  :  "that's what the huddle is for, DR, EXACTLY for the "I didn't read all the updates, but can you tell me what's up in the fastest way possible" type question."
Matthew Graham  :  "yeah, set your borrowers up on newsletter group and you can immediately send an on-demand newsletter to that group, even with alert content."
Sung Kim  :  "traders need to get this over with and test 1.84 so they can be resoundingly rejected"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "In essence he can. Use the alerts to communicate with your borrowers, co brand articles and send to your borrower's, etc."
Kevin Danforth  :  "now if MG could just get customers to respond with the same urgency"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "MG's alerts typically are. Such an awesome tool for originators"
B C  :  "the alert was very accurate"
Sung Kim  :  "these RP alerts are my fave "If You Haven't Seen a Reprice Yet, You Probably Will""
Dominick Cordone  :  "lock em up.....ugh"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Trend has been broken...not good."
Brent Borcherding  :  "Rates are about to spike, the recovery is rounding the bend...We're going to see huge benefits/results in Q2 this year due to lower oil as it takes about 12 months for it to show up in GDP."
Sung Kim  :  "we are in a corp earnings recession yet stocks just go up and up and up"