• Bond rally following yesterday's Fed brings trading levels right back to the top of the previous range
• holding ground today with modest gains would be great
• breaking back below 10yr yields of 1.80 would be better
• simply avoiding the early March precedent would be good

What is the "early March precedent?"  March 1st marked the beginning of a sell-off that was very similar in shape, intensity, and technical significance to the sell-off that began on April 20th.  Both sell-offs put in 4 more days of weakness after breaking above the 21-day moving average (middle line in the Bollinger Bands overlaid on the candlesticks in the following chart).  Both sell-offs then encountered a strongly positive day.  In early March, it was the 8th.  In the current sell-off, it was yesterday's Fed day.  

As the chart shows (and as you may well remember), the early March bounce was merely a 1-day head-fake before bonds resumed their weaker ways.  This time around, avoiding a similar fate--even if it only means holding steady--would be a welcome result.  If 10yr yields can manage to hold under 1.84, it would be even better.  The best case scenario would be a break under 1.80, but that would require a fairly strong rally today, which could be a tall order after yesterday's strong move.

Key data is limited to GDP at 8:30am.  This is the first look at Q1 numbers and the median forecast currently stands at 0.7.