- Bonds undergo token correction after yesterday's rout
- technicals remain precarious
- Fed speeches were in focus, but turned out to be fairly non-threatening
- where do we go now?
Bond traders are singin' Sweet Child of Mine like it's going out of style (again). A day after a fairly sound thrashing, we've just been treated to an almost perfectly unchanged day with an afternoon trading range that is almost 10 times as narrow as the previous day's trading range. It really doesn't get any more equivocal.
Chalk this up to the fact that traders were looking for answers today. They expected to get them from the Fed's big guns: Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley. Both were slated to speak this morning, so obviously, they'd either drive yesterday's nail into the coffin or help pry the lid off and let us catch our breath.
They did neither. In fact, Fischer didn't even comment on monetary policy. Markets rallied immediately, but conservatively. Dudley was yet to come. His speech was only slightly more informative, but in the Q&A, he did confirm what yesterday's Minutes already said. In short, yes, June is a rate hike possibility, but Dudley softened the blow by throwing in "or July"--something that analysts are very keen on at the moment (because it gives the Brexit vote time to happen before the Fed hikes rates).
So indeed, where do we go now? I don't know, but I know 10yr yields hit the 3pm CME close trading over a key technical level for the second day in a row, so I'm not too optimistic about stampeding back into the promised land. I guess you could say "defensive until given a reason to be anything else."
MBS | FNMA 3.0 102-07 : +0-04 | ||
Treasuries | 10 YR 1.8490 : -0.0340 | ||
Pricing as of 5/19/16 4:54PMEST |