• Gains were intact from the overnight session
  • massive losses in European bank stocks set the tone
  • Yes, Australia cut rates, but it wasn't much of a consideration
  • Bonds broke back into the previous range, with technicals turning bullish

Every moment that 10yr yields operate under 1.84 is like a dream for fans of low rates.  That level has historically been the gateway between the lowest rate range and everything else.  It's where we start to see more instances of 3.5% 30yr fixed conventional quotes.  

Not to say that 3.625 to 3.75 is a bad rate, but it's always a bummer when it looks like we're heading somewhere fun on the mortgage rate spectrum only to see things quickly change for the worse.  Yesterday was one of those "change for the worse" days, but not so much as to suggest abandoning hope.  

As it happens, we got far more than we would have hoped for.  Not only did 10yr yields hold a defensive ceiling at 1.87% (short term support as of Fed day), they continued through the 1.84 level and traded as low as 1.782!  Even as the day winds down, yields are still right at 1.80, which was the most frequent ceiling in the previous, super-low range.  

Gains came courtesy of massive losses in European bank stocks.  That's what set the tone anyway.  Corporate issuance was fairly light and domestic risk assets were generally on the run all day.  In other words, stocks and oil lost ground.  Bond markets gained ground, and the gains help confirm positive momentum that had been in doubt yesterday.  The only question is whether domestic markets will care about data.  There's a fair amount coming in the next 3 days, culminating in NFP Friday.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-19 : +0-09
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8000 : -0.0650
Pricing as of 5/3/16 5:00PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:09AM  :  Quick Take on Overnight Bounce

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "so is it inflation or continued economic progress? I sorta feel like it's inflation. If it was economic progress, they missed the window (obviously)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - WILLIAMS: IF SEE CONTINUED PROGRESS ON ECONOMY, THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RAISE RATES IN JUNE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - WILLIAMS SAYS TO RAISE RATES IN JUNE NEED TO SEE RISE IN INFLATION TOWARD JUNE, CONTINUED JOBS GAINS"
Sung Kim  :  "Sorry for being right"
Dominick Cordone  :  "found it...surprised its having this impact....mod on an investment property 5 yrs ago. Ugh"
Sung Kim  :  "That should go to 50 LP all day long."
Sung Kim  :  "There is something else on their credit"
Dominick Cordone  :  "LP hates my client....730 score, owner occ, no csah out 75 LTV, 12 mo resrves...Caution on anything above a 45..."
Blake Carrillo  :  ""never lock on Friday" indeed!! Just express the benefit and draw back to the client and let them be and feel accountable for the decision. I have never lost a lock due to a shift in pricing as long as the customer knows they made the decision and that they were comfortable with the decision at the time."
Dominick Cordone  :  "NEVER REGRET LOCKING!!!!"