Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields.  It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fairly gentle pace in the bigger picture.  Even then, such trends are by no means crystal balls.  At best, they can provide some lines on either side of whatever road we're currently on.  With that in mind, we'd reached the lower end of the range last Thursday and had begun to bounce by Friday.  Now this week, the first two trading days are confirming the bounce (unless today's losses fade).

The reassuring part of today's weaker performance so far is that it has required some specific motivation.  In other words, bonds haven't moved to higher yields simply because this trend says they are supposed to.  In today's case, it was a massive stimulus announcement from the European Commission at 7am.  Before that, Treasuries were actually doing a good job of resisting the stock market's incessant beckoning back into a riskier realm.

There are no big ticket events on the economic calendar today, which makes this a break in the action before the schedule gets significantly more active on Thursday and Friday.  The only notable inclusion on the event calendar is the 5yr Treasury auction at 1pm ET--the biggest ever at $45 bln (but not extraordinarily bigger than the $41 bln seen frequently in the past 18 months).