As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). If that was the only data point in the report, bonds would likely be rallying. But after considering the other data, traders have been more inclined to sell. A full and detailed assessment of this other data would be both mind-numbing and voluminous. Here it is in a nutshell. Revisions to the past two months more than offset this month's miss. Note the 3 month moving average of payrolls moving higher:

Bigger picture annual revisions took away fewer jobs than expected, and actually added jobs to the past few months.

The unemployment rate ticked down even though more people entered the workforce.

The prime working age employment to population ratio has continued to erase the late 2024 slide that had the Fed concerned enough to cut 50bps in September.  Bottom line: 143k pay not be a huge payroll number, but almost every other part of the report fails to raise any red flags that might contribute to higher rate cut probabilities.