- Staggeringly weak day for bonds.
- 2.0 MBS coupon is now irrelevant. 2.5 is only game in town
- Lots of general motivations to discuss (watch the video), but the 7yr auction was the only obvious moment for cause & effect
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Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
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Jobless Claims 730k vs 838k f'cast, 841k prev
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Durable Goods 3.4 vs 1.1 f'cast, 1.2 prev
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GDP (revision, q4) 4.1 vs 4.2 f'cast
Modestly weaker in Asia, then significantly weaker in Europe, with 10yr yields rising more than 8bps by the open (high yield = 1.468%). MBS are down 3/8ths after an incredibly illiquid 1st hour. Econ data didn't have a big impact. This is all bigger-picture momentum/snowball/technical trading.
yields consolidated for the first two hours before breaking out to the high side. Illiquidity surged in MBS and prices ticked down a bit more (2.5 coupons down 20 ticks or .625 on the day). Baby bounce in the 10yr (down to 1.475 after hitting 1.494), but not taking anything for granted here.
A bit of panic on both sides of the market with stocks down 2.2%+ and 10yr yields at 1.50%. MBS aren't happy and negative reprice risk is a reality. No new news behind the move.
Huge losses after worst 7yr Treasury auction on record. 10yr hit 1.614 but is back to 1.50% now. 2.5 UMBS are trading around 103 (down 3/4ths of a point on the day), but liquidity is nowhere to be found. Prices could settle anywhere within half a point of that.
After a token bounce, more weakness at the 3pm CME close. Bonds effectively back in line with weakest levels. No particular reason. Stocks are in the same boat.