A storm of potential inspiration is brewing for the bond market. Over the next 5 trading days we'll get announcements from the 2 biggest central banks (ECB and The Fed), Durable Goods, the first reading of Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, Chicago PMI, and ADP Employment. At first glance, all of the above builds to a crescendo with next Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement, but then we'll get a jobs report 2 days later that could cause some revision to the post-Fed momentum.
Tomorrow morning kicks off the crazy 5-day run with the ECB announcement before US markets open for the day. With all of the above in mind, bonds did a rather amazing job holding almost perfectly flat today. Right out of the gate, weaker European econ data allowed yields to start the day fairly close to yesterday's lows. Weaker US Markit PMI added to the gains, but bonds weren't interested in going anywhere but sideways. 10yr yields held inside a 1bp range for most of the rest of the day, despite a weak 5yr Treasury auction.