As far as Fed days go--especially the kind where we get updated economic projections--today's example was pretty damn uneventful.  These things happen from time to time, but this wasn't exactly a day where a "dud" announcement was seen as being very likely.   Markets were hungry for clarification on the Fed's rate outlook as well as any response to the short-term funding market woes of the past few days.

I could weave a bit of a tale for you about how the market moved in a big way ahead of the announcement due to expectations for certain changes/inclusions and how it simply unwound that movement when it didn't get what it was looking for, but that would be giving too much credit.  It's true that expectations ramped up a bit for a slightly friendlier Fed than we got, but longer-term yields had only barely dipped their toes back in August's post-NFP range at today's very best levels.  In other words, it wasn't exactly a huge lead-off.

Heading back the other way was just as average with bond ending almost perfectly unchanged (unless we're talking about 2yr Treasuries, which were a bit more upset at the Fed's rate hike outlook).  Powell couldn't have been more matter-of-fact.  The Fed doesn't see a recession coming (they'd never say so anyway), nor do they see anything other than a simple little miscalculation of liquidity behind yesterday's repo rate drama.  Move along.  Nothing to see here.  They'll hike/cut/ease/tighten if they need to based on evolving market conditions.  While that's exactly in line with what I said they'd say, I never imagined bonds would be this flat in response.  The icing on the cake?  Today's volume was the lightest in the past 6 trading days!