Risks are beginning to mount for the rate outlook--at least in the sense of mortgage rates being relatively impervious to broader bond market weakness. In other words, if Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates can easily continue lower. But if yields continue to rise, mortgage rates will be finding it harder and harder to resist the urge to follow. Today's video breaks it down in gory detail, including the weekly newsletter's coverage of the same topic.
-
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
-
Core Annual PPI Inflation 1.4 va 1.5 f'cast, 1.1 prev
-
Consumer Sentiment 81.4 vs 76.5 f'cast, 76.9 prev
European bonds were sharply stronger overnight following Brexit updates, mainly. US Treasuries pulled along for the ride to a lesser degree with 10yr yields opening 1-2bps lower and UMBS 2-3 ticks (0.06-0.09) higher. Stocks are down 0.6% from 5pm. No reaction to econ data this AM.
930am NYSE open saw Treasuries rally noticeably but modestly. This is a recurring theme in December (the movement, not necessarily the direction). After leveling off for a bit, gains have resumed and we're at the best levels of the day. Limited correlation with other markets (i.e. Treasury-specific move). 10yr down to .875 and 1.5 UMBS almost back to 102.
Very little to report since the last check. MBS have continued at the same or better levels as the settlement of December coupons seems to be making it easier for buyers to get involved. 10yr yields are off their best levels, but still stronger on the day. Vaccine headlines and government funding confirmation have had little-to-no effect.
MBS Market Alerts
