2019 had been (and perhaps continues to be) dominated by an increasingly narrow range.  To appreciate just how narrow things have been, consider the month of February had the tightest trading range since 1979.

We'd been tracking the fairly linear consolidation pattern since the end of January (yellow lines in the following chart).  The upper line, in particular, didn't need to be adjusted a single time before being broken last week.  The lower line was also fairly well behaved and only needed to be adjusted slightly lower starting 2 weeks ago.

This adjustment process was very much on our radar considering it's not until mid March that we'd expect to see more serious buying or selling momentum justified by data and events.  In other words, the range was narrowing quickly enough that it wasn't going to last until mid March, but it didn't seem likely that the first break would be the bond market's final answer when it comes to the question of the year's first major directional trend (i.e. a higher or lower trend as opposed to a sideways one).

If bonds are able to muster some support this week--especially if overnight highs in 10yr yields set the ceiling, it would leave us with a nicely-widened range that would offer plenty of trading space between now and the end of the month.  It would also line up very well with pivot points in December and January.

If bonds are able to maintain this new, wider range, it will require "no whammies" from this week's economic data and events.  In that regard, Friday's NFP is the heaviest hitter, as always, but there are a few other potential market movers.  Tomorrow's ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is fairly consistent supporting actor in the shadow of NFP's stardom.  ADP Employment on Wednesday occasionally drops in with a compelling cameo. 

And like a comedy actor trying to break in to drama, Thursday's Jobless Claims could end up surprising us with their ability to be more serious and relevant than normal, largely because everyone is on the lookout for warning signs for the next recession, and Jobless Claims data is one of a few good early indicators as far as labor markets are concerned.  With recent movement in "continued claims," we're waiting to see if we're looking at a head fake or the beginning of shift in the labor market.