In the week just passed, the first 4 days (and especially Tue/Thu) served as the scene for a breakout from the previous trend (seen in the yellow lines on today's chart).  Investors eagerly awaited Powell's congressional testimony, with bonds leading off toward higher yields in advance (Tuesday).  When Powell's prepared speech hit the wires (Wed), bonds took some solace, but Thursday's slightly stronger CPI report and terrible 30yr bond auction prompted heavy selling.  By Friday, however, yields were able to maintain the same ceiling for 2 days in a row at 2.15%.

In the week ahead, we'll continue assessing the 2.15% ceiling (hit again overnight) for support.  After the overnight bounce, we're starting the domestic session roughly 4 bps lower.  If 2.15% does end up acting as a firm ceiling here, it wouldn't necessarily be inconsistent with the recent range breakout.  It would just mean that the resulting shift in momentum was short and shallow.  Indeed, short-term momentum metrics are already 'oversold.'  Longer-term momentum still has room to run (green/teal lines below), but they definitely don't make it all the way their every time a selling-spree takes root.

In terms of the week's calendar, tomorrow's Retail Sales data is likely the headliner.  Last week, Powell reiterated the Fed's strong impression of the consumer in contrast to weaker business confidence.  Therefore, any meaningful crack seen forming in consumer spending would be a big deal.  Friday's Consumer Sentiment data is important for the same reason.  Low volume and light liquidity are also potential market movers as we traverse peak vacationing season.