Mortgage rates have been more or less unchanged since August 10th.  That's an impressively boring streak even by summertime standards.  Why does summertime matter?  Simply put, rates are ultimately a factor of trading that's conducted directly or indirectly by humans.  Humans tend to feel and act more "vacationy" in August, whether they're in the office or not!  While this dynamic can sometimes create imbalances that cause volatility, the typical result is lower volatility.  We've seen 2 great examples of this so far this summer--first in late June through late July, and now over these past 2 weeks.

The flat trend will change sometime fairly soon, but HOW soon is anyone's guess.  Tomorrow brings the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, which has been an event that has broken such stalemates in the past.  It's been less prone to do so in the past few years, but the wildcard is that this will be the first year with the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  Given that he has a few opportunities to address recently hot topics, there's some small chance that rates begin to perk up as early as tomorrow.  

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

• 30YR FIXED - 4.625-4.75
• FHA/VA - 4.25-4.5%
• 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.125%
  
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.75-4.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

• Rates moved higher in a serious way due to several big-picture headwinds, including: the Fed's rate hike outlook (and general policy tightening), the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
  
  
• Despite those headwinds, the upward momentum in rates has cooled off heading into the summer months.  This could merely be the eye of the storm, or it could end up being the moment where markets began to doubt that prevailing trends would continue.
  
  
• It makes sense to remain defensive (i.e. generally more lock-biased) because the headwinds mentioned above won't die down quickly.  Temporary corrections can be explained away, but it will take a big change in economic fundamentals or geopolitical risk for the big picture to change.  While that doesn't necessarily mean rates have to skyrocket, there's a good chance it means rates will struggle to move much lower than early 2018 lows until more convincing motivation shows up.

• Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.