Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:53 AM
The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the Core PCE Price index fell from +1.6% in the 1st quarter to +0.8% in the 2nd quarter to a record low +0.4% ...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:26 AM
Interest rates are generally sideways, equity futures are flat and oil prices are above $90 per barrel while the market awaits final GDP revisions, ex...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 5:45 PM
First of all, the overriding caveat for today and probably for tomorrow as well is the low volume. Normally, low volume is seen at 60-90% of recent a...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 5:19 PM
Although our directional guidance givers, benchmark Treasury yields, moved higher today, mortgage rates ended the session in a slightly lower position...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 2:09 PM
It's too bad to refer to a negative trend in a positive way, but it is behaving just as expected. After breaking the triangle convergence, 10's have c...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 11:42 AM
Profit takers and short sellers are making their presence known following the Fed's latest POMO in the long end of the yield curve. Flows have gone ne...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 8:22 AM
The 2.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is currently +8/32 at 94-08 yielding 3.311%. The 2s/10s curve is 3bps flatter at 271 wide. The FNCL 4.5 is UNC...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 5:20 PM
Another data-less day has passed and we've seen another day of chopatility led by technical inflection levels surrounding the Fed's open market operat...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 1:56 PM
From a big picture perspective...the modest gains we've enjoyed lately have done little to dent the massive declines that played out in December. Reba...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 12:44 PM
Once the Fed's open market operations were done for the day...we started seeing rates make a move higher along with with a modest increase in trading ...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 10:06 AM
I've made a list. I've checked it twice. And yep. Confirmation! I have not finished my holiday shopping yet! Nor am I ready to welcome the holiday spi...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 8:55 AM
December floaters shouldn't be comfortable yet. You should actually be pretty antsy. That's how the market will behave next week at least. The week ah...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 5:34 PM
We started letting War Roomers into MBSonMND last week. So far so good! If you signed up to be a beta tester, be patient with us, your invitation is c...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 4:30 PM
In this shortened holiday week, in an era already frought with volatility, we'd only expect more of the same. However, with last week's strength in M...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 11:22 AM
We stand a reasonable chance of confirming the rally that began around mid-day yesterday. Bonds have added to those gains this morning but positive p...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 8:51 AM
The House of Representatives last night voted 277 to 148 to approve an $858 billion tax package extending the Bush-era tax cuts. After the news S&P fu...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 5:52 PM
Phew. We made it through yesterday afternoon. And then we made it all the way through today too! Rally intact!! Additional gains secured!!! Reprices f...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 5:13 PM
Volatility has not been a friend to mortgage rates over the last 30 days, but in the last 36 hours, we've been good buddies!
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 2:08 PM
MBS and treasuries have broken their intraday resistance levels after earlier stability prompted fast$ bond "vigilantes" to cover their short positio...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 11:15 AM
Lots of data to recap this morning and lots of drama to digest from yesterday. Not much has changed overnight as MBS and treasuries both sit at simila...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 8:23 AM
Benchmark interest rates spiked yesterday afternoon following the Senate's passage of the tax cut extension bill. About half of those losses were reco...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 5:57 PM
This may be what you've been waiting for! Over the course of the past few days and weeks, we've been increasingly trying to convey the same message: ...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 5:22 PM
For now....YAY the bleeding has stopped....For now. Let's see what happens tomorrow before we start getting excited about another false start.
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 2:10 PM
It sounds almost surreal, but the new best execution rate is 5.25%. We just blew through 4.75% and 5.00% in less than a week. Volatility in loan pric...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 12:05 PM
The 10yr note got gappy after the Fed completed their latest QEII POMO at 11am. The move has not been originator friendly. 10s have lost almost all of...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 8:34 AM
Plain and Simple: Inflation hawks really don't have a crutch to lean on if they're looking to explain the recent run up in rates as a factor of increa...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 8:23 AM
The bond market had another bad day yesterday following a strong read on Retail Sales and an improved outlook from the small business sector. Treasur...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 7:52 PM
Only a month ago, best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rates were holding between 4.25% and 4.75%. Heck 4.75% was available on Monday morning! But i...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 5:04 PM
Lots of explanations out there. Not much of a consensus on the actual cause of this mess though. Everybody seems to be grinding a different axe or tak...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 3:01 PM
Whether your a stock or a bond, you've been selling off hard in the past few minutes. 10 year yields have skyrocketed right past 3.5 and currently si...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 11:27 AM
Rates starting rising after 830am data and they haven't really stopped rising since then. If you are floating, beware, lenders may reprice for the wor...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 8:32 AM
Retail Sales show strong gains in seasonal consumer spending but larger sales volumes also reflect rising energy costs. On the surface this supports t...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 8:28 AM
Benchmark interest rates are higher while equity futures are mixed Tuesday morning ahead of key retail sales data and the afternoon policy statement f...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 6:14 PM
Bonds got killed, revived, and killed again numerous times today. All in all it was about a 20bp rise in YIELDS in the 10 yr which can be seen occurr...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 2:15 PM
The FOMC Statement has been released. As expected there was no change in the Fed's tone or outlook. The December statement is essentially the same as ...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 1:52 PM
This morning's data was not supportive for bonds. But the overnight session kicked things off in a bad direction even before that. What we've seen s...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 12:05 PM
The Federal Reserve has updated their QEII asset purchasing schedule.
From December 13th to January 11th the New York Federal Reserve's trading de...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 9:46 AM
Although a year-end lack of liquidity can be cited as a catalyst for exaggerated increases in interest rates lately, it's pretty obvious that bargain ...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 8:57 AM
The calendar of economic data was thin last week, but the next few days brings key numbers on retail sales, manufacturing and production, and cost pre...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 6:19 PM
Things can slow down at work and get busier in your personal life during December. And regardless of the time of year, who doesn't appreciate a Frida...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 4:10 PM
Plain and Simple: For 30 year fixed mortgages, there is a clear line of demarcation between 4.625% and 4.75%. If you are looking to close in the next ...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 2:31 PM
Last week, we noted that lenders were not likely to add production into year end. In addition we talked at length about the "big difference" between ...
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 11:44 AM
After going out in the 3.22 range last night, the benchmakr 10yr TSY note pushed higher out the gate this AM all the way up to 3.28% where support was...
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 8:42 AM
The trade deficit narrowed considerably more than expected in October as exports increased 3.2% and imports decreased by 0.5%. Bonds started selling a...
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 8:24 AM
Equity futures are moving higher Friday ahead of key trade balance and consumer sentiment data. And interest rates are moving higher too.
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates shot higher this week. The new "best execution" par 30 year fixed mortgage rate has jumped firmly up to 4.75%.
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 1:37 PM
Downside implications are mitigated somewhat by the fact that trading volumes are very low and liquidity is greatly lacking. Fast$ day traders are ind...
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 11:27 AM
The 10yr note yield just shot up from 3.228% to 3.271% for seemingly no reason. Then I got my POMO email alert from the FRBNY and it made more sense.....
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 10:32 AM
At 830am, weekly jobless claims printed at 421k vs 425k median estimates. Many of the report's metrics showed improvements, but despite a few "best l...
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 8:24 AM
Benchmark interest rates moved mostly sideways overnight but are off yesterday's highs. Equity futures are moving higher Thursday, continuing on from ...
