Wed, Nov 10 2010, 6:43 PM
QEII is here. This is the event that will help mortgage rates move back below 4.00% again. Patience is counting down without blasting off.
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 5:20 PM
The bond market is closed tomorrow, this will give us plenty of time to ponder what happens on Friday and when we should be expecting mortgage rates t...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 2:05 PM
The Fed will conduct 18 open market asset purchases over the next 19 trading sessions. They will spend about $105 billion which works out to around $5...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 1:15 PM
Plain and Simple: the Fed will not focus their QEII purchases in the ultra long-end of the yield curve. Why buy 'em, especially if you're worried abou...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 12:19 PM
MBS prices are well off their early AM highs and we will probably see reprices for the worse following the TSY auction unless there is a rally in the ...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 10:55 AM
The Treasury Department will announce the results of their $24 billion 10yr note fundraiser at 1pm. Pre-auction price/yield concessions are obvious as...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 8:13 AM
We've seen very light origination flows over past three sessions. This means lock desks are underhedged and we'll need to see secondary managers add s...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 4:30 PM
I think it's safe to say your float boat took on water today. Benchmark Treasury yields seemed to have no ceiling and MBS prices appeared to have no f...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 1:05 PM
There was an obvious increase in trading activity immediately after the auction results were released. The knee jerk move was higher in price/lower in...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 8:55 AM
The week ahead brings little new data. The highlight of the economic calendar is the trade deficit on Wednesday and the month’s first consumer sentime...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 4:48 PM
MY OUTLOOK: SEE ABOVE STATEMENT. ****NO CHANGE NO CHANGE NO CHANGE****
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 4:17 PM
Today is Class A Notification Day in the secondary mortgage market. Class A MBS coupons consist of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 30 year loan notes. Nove...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 1:07 PM
Directs and Indirects seemed hesitant to chase after the short end of the curve but dealers were aggressive, which kept the auction from getting slopp...
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 12:19 PM
Loan pricing is getting beat up. MBS prices are moving to new intraday lows. Reprices for the Worse are possible. Suntrust already went worse.
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 8:31 AM
The October Employment Situation Report has been released. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 151,000, this was much better than calls for a +60,000 print. The...
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 8:19 AM
Benchmark interest rates made an aggressive move lower yesterday and tocks rallied to their highest levels since before the crash of Lehman Brothers, ...
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 3:39 PM
We've spent most of our time lately celebrating accommodative and expansionary policies that push mortgage rates lower. The problem with this perspec...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 12:11 PM
I have some good news to share. Lenders aren't holding back bps. The majors are going for it. Loan pricing is QEII-tastic today....
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 8:35 AM
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons are approaching record price highs. This should allow lenders to carefully inch back toward record low mortgage ra...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 8:06 AM
The following Op-Ed was written by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and published by the Washington Post last night. Ben is clearly paving a new path in mone...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 7:42 AM
Both benchmark interest rates and stock futures rallied in the overnight session. The 2s/10s yield curve is bull flattening but the long bond continue...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 4:43 PM
Ok so the rally we enjoyed today was another step in the right direction. Our outlook seems to be playing out perfectly but we're not quite there yet ...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 12:05 PM
To be sure everybody is up to date on what we should be expecting, I've pulled a few more comments from Ben's Jackson Hole speech. The comments below ...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 8:59 AM
Mid-terms are done. The Reds took the House and the Blues maintained their stronghold in the Senate. The bond market will view this as a fiscal policy...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 8:24 AM
Interest rates are rallying and U.S. equity futures are pointing slightly upwards following yesterday’s mid-term elections and ahead of the FOMC’s new...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 7:29 PM
Remember our MND RateWatch motto? Play the range until the range plays you. Bernanke didn't play us and it doesn't seem like he intends to anytime soo...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 3:08 PM
The FOMC has directed the Open Market desk to purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter ...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 2:17 PM
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee ...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 9:00 AM
Well, I don't know why I came here tonight. I got the feeling that something ain't right. I'm so scared, in case I fall off my chair. And I'm wonde...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 8:47 AM
Benchmark interest rates are lower and the yield curve is flatter on Tuesday morning as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day monetary policy meeting...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 4:12 PM
At 2:15pm tomorrow, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release their policy statement. At 2:15pm we find out if Quantitative Easing becomes...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 2:29 PM
I am seeing some volatility in the basis. MBS valuations are moving in an originator friendly manner. Besides the long bond, which appears to be catch...
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 12:56 PM
If you've been riding the float boat, now is not the time to be be pulling your hair out in panic. Remain calm, nothing has changed, QEII is coming an...
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 8:44 AM
Key Events in the Week Ahead Include: Mid-Term Elections, the FOMC Meeting, the Employment Situation Report, and Pending Home Sales.
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates had their little hissy fit and consumer borrowing costs moved to one month highs. But it was all part of the game. We anticipated this ...
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 1:53 PM
Plain and Simple: YES. If open market asset purchases push benchmark yields and mortgage rates lower, to the point where loan refinancing increases en...
Fri, Oct 29 2010, 8:30 AM
Plain and Simple: GDP data was on the screws. A few things stood out to me. Weakness in the housing market is VERY OBVIOUS....see the 29.1% decline in...
Fri, Oct 29 2010, 8:26 AM
Ahead of a deluge of data, domestic interest rates are improved. This follows the release of several discouraging reports on the international economy...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 10:04 AM
We sniffed out the pain trade the day after $13 billion long bonds were met with poor demand. The pain trade is just about played out and benchmark in...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 8:28 AM
The long end of the yield curve continued to weaken early in the overnight session but have since corrected back to yesterday's yield lows/price highs...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 6:08 PM
The first step in revisiting record low mortgage rates was taken today. Selling in the long end of the curve stopped out, shorts were covered, prices ...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 1:30 PM
lain and Simple: Overall, this 7-yr auction was very well received, and has pushed benchmark yields lower. It is definitely the best auction of the w...
Wed, Oct 27 2010, 12:32 PM
There is a great deal of nervousness regarding the outlook for interest rates as it relates to QEII. I expected this to happen.The bond market got ahe...
Wed, Oct 27 2010, 8:29 AM
Ahead of a $35 billion 5-year Treasury note auction, the 5-year note is -9/32 at 99-23 yielding 1.306% (+5.3%) and the 10-year Treasury note is -17/32...
Wed, Oct 27 2010, 4:15 PM
Plain and Simple: The bond market got way head of itself about QEII. The sugar high has worn off. However because it is a "trader's market" and a trad...
Wed, Oct 27 2010, 1:08 PM
10s are off their yield highs and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are off their intraday price lows....but both are generally bouncing around nea...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 9:06 AM
"A disappointing report. Home prices broadly declined in August. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both composites saw a weakening in year-over-year figu...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 8:20 AM
Benchmark interest rates backed up yesterday in a low volume trading environment. The move was short term in nature but clearly illustrates the idea ...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 3:53 PM
Yuck. Mortgage rates are not heading in the right direction. In the past two days consumer borrowing costs on mortgage rate quotes at or below 4.25% h...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 2:31 PM
This post is more of an FYI as opposed to an alert. If you're floating I would not recommend locking at this point in the retracement process. The lon...
