Thu, Feb 20 2025, 4:50 PM
Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight sessio...
Thu, Feb 20 2025, 12:00 PM
There's an interesting little case study in this morning's market movement. Bonds had been sideway to very slightly weaker overnight, but began to ral...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 4:30 PM
Deep Dive on Today's Misunderstood Fed Comments
Today's only potential big ticket event was the release of t...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 10:34 AM
Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear ...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 4:52 PM
Bonds Give Up Friday's Gains
Bond market volume was a little better than half of its recent average today--s...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 11:33 AM
Traders have done a reasonably good job of making it back to the office after the 3-day weekend. Volumes are almost in line with last Tuesday (also a ...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 5:12 PM
Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales
If yesterday's PPI-driven rally was a paradox, today's con...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 11:53 AM
What a difference the past two mornings have made for a bond market that was seemingly on the ropes on Wednesday. After yesterday's paradoxical (thoug...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 4:36 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally?
PPI may not be as heavy a hitter as CPI on average, but one c...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 9:07 AM
This morning's econ data included weekly jobless claims, which came in roughly in line with forecasts, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which was a ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 4:50 PM
CPI Came in HOT and Bonds Reacted Logically
There's remarkably little else to observe beyond this morning's ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 11:25 AM
We know that bonds take a majority of their economic data cues from two reports: NFP and CPI. We knew that today's CPI was critically important in com...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:59 PM
What to Expect From Wednesday's Inflation Data
Bonds lost ground overnight in sympathy with European bonds. ...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 11:10 AM
With Tokyo closed for a holiday, overnight Treasury trading was limited to futures markets until 2am ET. Yields opened about 1bp higher in Europe and...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 4:21 PM
Little Changed After Early Rally and Steady Selling
Monday ended up being a relative non-event for the bond ...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 12:02 PM
Perhaps the most notable market-related headline over the weekend was Trump's pre-announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (in addition to ex...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 3:00 PM
Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI
The first order of business this morning was to reconcile the weaker NFP...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 10:15 AM
As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). ...
Thu, Feb 6 2025, 9:42 AM
Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the ...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 4:03 PM
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
There are plenty of moving pieces at the moment when it comes to assi...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 10:40 AM
To say the very least, there are more moving pieces to consider at the moment when it comes to the narrative guiding volatility and momentum in the bo...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range
The only moderately inconvenient part of the day was the morning hours ...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 10:32 AM
Bonds initially drifted into slightly weaker territory in the overnight session, but began bouncing back just after 9am ET. All this in spite of a qu...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 4:21 PM
In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways
If you are following along with intraday marke...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 10:45 AM
As we discussed heading into the weekend (and the likely official tariff announcement), the only recent, conclusive track record the market has for ta...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 5:01 PM
Reasonably Reserved Reaction to Tariff Headlines
If you were just watching headlines and making note of MBS ...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 12:16 PM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations with the annual core PCE price index coming in at 2.8% and the monthly core coming in ...
Thu, Jan 30 2025, 4:41 PM
Solid Showing In Spite of Data and Uncertainty
The relevance of economic data increased this morning with th...
Thu, Jan 30 2025, 12:09 PM
Bonds rallied in overnight trading. The move was exceptionally linear, without any obvious regard for movement in equities or European bonds. Yields w...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
There's never a way to know with certainty that a Fed announcemen...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 2:01 PM
What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractio...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 12:12 PM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but have pulled back as we head into the noon hour. If we put today's movement under a microscope,...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 4:23 PM
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
Bonds had a mixed reaction to this morning's Durable Goods data with st...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 9:02 AM
Bonds were weaker overnight as markets calmed down a bit after yesterday's DeepSeek frenzy. The 8:20am CME open brought in just a bit of buying, but ...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 4:53 PM
Bonds Seek Lower Yields, But not Too Deeply Yet
On Friday night, a vast majority of market watchers had neve...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 10:18 AM
NVDA has obviously been THE biggest driver of prevailing bull market in stocks. In 2024, its market cap increased by just over 2 trillion dollars. Fol...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 4:27 PM
Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week
If bonds had continued to sell off today, it would have made the we...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 12:03 PM
Due to the incredibly light calendar of economic data this week, this morning's combination of S&P PMI and Consumer Sentiment added up to the most con...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 4:42 PM
Bonds Feeling Defensive Despite Trump's Demands For Lower Rates
Bonds lost ground this morning despite sligh...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 10:45 AM
Yesterday's recap began by calling attention to the "extreme dearth of big ticket economic data" this week. Thursday AM brought the weekly jobless cl...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 4:06 PM
Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game
The extreme dearth of big ticket economic da...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 12:23 PM
Bonds rallied yesterday, largely in an attempt to catch up with the movement that occurred on Monday when cash trading was closed (futures and other m...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 4:54 PM
Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains
This morning's commentary focused on a bond rally in response to an absenc...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 10:57 AM
Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs. This was one of the key area...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 4:56 PM
Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful
Friday may as well have been a 4th weekend day for the bond ma...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 10:38 AM
It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, trader...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 4:29 PM
2 Straight Days of Gains?!
Not only have bonds managed to pull off a feat rarely seen in recent memory (back...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 11:48 AM
While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some
For every 14 or 15 times we approach a potential big-t...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 10:37 AM
On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market t...
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