Fri, Jan 17 2025, 4:56 PM
Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful
Friday may as well have been a 4th weekend day for the bond ma...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 10:38 AM
It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, trader...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 4:29 PM
2 Straight Days of Gains?!
Not only have bonds managed to pull off a feat rarely seen in recent memory (back...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 11:48 AM
While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some
For every 14 or 15 times we approach a potential big-t...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 10:37 AM
On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market t...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 4:45 PM
Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers
Tuesday featured a much weaker PPI report that fail...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 12:02 PM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing l...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness
This week's relevant economic data is concentrated over the Tue-Thu t...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 10:36 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shi...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 3:48 PM
Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree
Today's jobs report was much stronger than expected and there were n...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 10:16 AM
The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate ...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 2:04 PM
No Data, No Volatility
Bonds were only open for half the day due to the national day of mourning for Jimmy C...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 11:03 AM
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due ...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 3:29 PM
Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways
Markets seemingly had a lot to get through today between economic data,...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 9:58 AM
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (m...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 4:21 PM
Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months
Bonds reacted logically to this morning's econ data at 10am. ISM...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 11:54 AM
High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's cas...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 4:12 PM
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Bonds lost ground this morning despite a weaker S&P PMI...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 10:31 AM
Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this m...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 5:29 PM
Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare
2 weeks ago today, we assumed the bond market would l...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 12:24 PM
Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak ei...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 4:38 PM
Uneventful Start to 2025
Bonds began the day in moderately stronger territory before losing ground after the...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 10:11 AM
Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minut...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 2:20 PM
Year-End Trading. No Big Deal
Bonds started stronger but lost ground quickly and inexplicably starting aroun...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 10:01 AM
The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urg...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:56 PM
Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It
Bonds improved somewhat significantly in overn...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 10:49 AM
Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous r...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:57 PM
Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
Bonds began the day in decent shape by pushing back against weakness ...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 9:31 AM
Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 4:32 PM
Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
The day began as so many days over the past few months with...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 9:15 AM
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting rig...
Tue, Dec 24 2024, 10:11 AM
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 4:01 PM
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and continued to sell off ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 12:30 PM
The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:44 PM
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible th...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 9:54 AM
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its pri...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 4:30 PM
Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day
Considering everything that transpired yesterday, today's follow-up w...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 10:29 AM
The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in Septembe...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 5:07 PM
Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected
We knew the bond market was expecting a hawkis...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have gene...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 11:31 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:58 PM
Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot
Whereas last week saw the bond market continue ...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 11:05 AM
Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bond...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 4:22 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data
If there was a prime directive for the bond market last week,...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 12:26 PM
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currentl...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 4:55 PM
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Without a doubt, it's been a frustrating and puzzling week for the bond market...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 11:42 AM
Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core month...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:36 PM
Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds
Granted, this week's slate of economic data isn't on quite the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 10:28 AM
This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly abl...
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