Mortgage performance seems to be sliding past the metrics measuring the world prior to the 2008 housing crisis and is now setting new benchmarks for the 21st Century. Black Knight, in its first look at June loan data, says some indicators of loan distress are the lowest since the end of the dot.com recession.
The company says that June had the fewest foreclosure starts in 17 years, 43,000. The number represents a 3.12 percent decline since May and there were 23 percent fewer starts than during the same period in 2017. Loans in process of foreclosure, also known as the foreclosure inventory, continued to decline as well. The inventory fell below 300,000 for the first time in nearly 12 years. The inventory, 291,000 loans, represents 56 percent of all mortgaged homes, down 4.51 percent or 12000 loans since May. The year-over-year decline in the inventory is 119,000 loans or 30 percent.
There was what Black Knight called a seasonal increase of 2.71 percent in the foreclosure rate to 3.74 percent. The foreclosure rate is the percentage of mortgaged properties with loans that are 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure. Expressed in numbers, delinquencies were up 58,000 for the month but down 7,000 year, or 1.59 percent, year-over year.
The serious delinquency rate, loans 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, appears to have recovered from the surge experienced after the 2017 hurricanes and has hit a new post-recession low. Those delinquencies dropped by 20,000 compared to May and are down 7,000 since last June.
The total for all loans that are non-current or in foreclosure nationwide was 2.22 million, up 45,000 from May but 126,000 loans fewer than a year earlier. The states with the highest delinquency rates were Mississippi at 9.70 percent, Louisiana at 7.64 percent, and Alabama with a rate of 6.71 percent.
The rate of prepayment activity rose in June, reflecting the busy home selling season. The decline in refinancing however was still reflected in the in the number which was down 15 percent compared to last June.
Black Knight will provide a more in-depth look at recent mortgage performance indicators in its July Mortgage Monitor. It will be published by August 6, 2018.