Tue, Jul 21 2009, 8:31 AM
Last Session Recap
* Medium Sized rally
* Volume was pathetic
* Stocks broke serious upside ceilings
* MBS failed to break their...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 5:46 PM
Moving on to a longer view, we are back above some scarier historical levels, and through a recent triangle denoted by the teal lines. Although today...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 3:40 PM
Activity in the TSY and MBS market has teetered out as the afternoon has wore on. Although earlier we noted some profit taking in the fuller side of t...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 1:01 PM
There have been broad based reprices for the better in the primary mortgage market. Mortgage rates are now under 5.00% for the most qualified customer...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 11:19 AM
Last week the steeper yield curve forced prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons markedly lower. For the week the FN 4.5 moved from $100-19 to ...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 8:33 AM
Friday's Recap
* Better data and earnings led stocks up and fixed income down almost all week.
* over 2 points lost in 10yr, about a point...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 5:10 PM
Though the low volume seen today did give way to a somewhat choppier than normal session, the end result for Tsy's and MBS was positive with the 10yr ...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 2:28 PM
"Market Profile is a graphical organization of price and time information. Market Profile displays price on the vertical axis and time on the horizont...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 1:25 PM
Since 1pm, the 10yr Tsy yield has fallen appreciably to test Friday's intraday lows at 3.59. Though the drop coincides with the completion of the 3 m...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 12:52 PM
Bill Berliner's views on a number of issues, including 1) a story that homeowners accepting modifications are seeing a substantial drop in their credi...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:02 AM
Although FN 4.5 prices were able to hold steady for a moment, the extent to which the market shifted its sentiment (volume spike) forced traders to ad...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 8:41 AM
At the open the 10 yr is bouncing around between 3.53 and 3.57. Although it has been a slow start to the trading session, we are seeing some signs of ...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 5:17 PM
More Thoughts On Recent Market Dynamics In A Nutshell
This week saw what looked like a massive correction for MBS which turned out simply to be a t...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 2:45 PM
Interesting happenings going on in MBS market today. The yield curve is noticeably steeper, which would usually force "rate sheet influential" MBS inv...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 10:47 AM
Traders have pushed the 10 yr TSY note back to yesterday's 830AM (pre data) yields indicating the market is looking to test the strength of yesterday'...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 8:28 AM
Yesterday's Recap
* Snowball Selling
* All Data unfriendly, higher than expected CPI leads the charge
* lost almost a full point in 4...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 6:00 PM
we'll skip the more detailed enumeration of tomorrow's potentialities and the beautiful beautiful charts I know you're all so fond of, so that some ad...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 4:31 PM
Not much to report in MBSland. FN 4.5 prices went sideways in the second half of the session...RANGE BOUND. On the bright side, as the 10 yr TSY yield...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 1:38 PM
Into the afternoon, MBS have continued in a reasonably tight range of gains with the 4.5 now reaching up near 99-20, an 18 tick recovery from yestered...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 12:18 PM
REPRICES FOR WORSE LIKELY AS S&P MAKES NEW INTRADAY HIGHS AND YIELD CURVE STEEPENS. CURRENTLY 10 YR YIELD AT 3.58% AND FN 4.5 AT 99-08. THIS IS WELL B...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 10:35 AM
The bond market is definitely in defensive mode as equities blasted through several technical resistance levels this morning. Consequently there was s...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 8:30 AM
June CPI
* Headline CPI = +0.7% (consensus = +0.6%)
* CORE CPI (excludes food/energy) = +0.2% (consensus = +0.1%)
* Year over year st...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 5:43 PM
Fixed Income exhibited real weakness today. Benchmark yields were higher, volatility ticked up again, "rate sheet influential MBS" prices fell 23 tick...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 4:07 PM
Bullet Points
* 2's/10's, steeper, 2.603
* Late stock strength pushing bonds lower.
* MBS and treasuries book close at 3pm hangs on t...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 1:19 PM
Today's unwelcome (but not entirely mystifying) selling has subsided for a moment as several markets ping some top tier technical price levels...
M...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 10:30 AM
In MBS world volume is apathetic at best. Yield spreads are slightly wider as the FN 4.5 is feeling the effects of a steeper yield curve and higher o...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 8:26 AM
Last Session Recap
* lost some on limited data
* stock rally hurt tsy's
* tsy spending gave pause
* earning's season buzz mounti...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 5:47 PM
If it seems that each new day brings a new fork in the road for MBS prices that reflects the theme of "waiting for guidance." As discussed, the recon...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 3:36 PM
Interest rate option volatility has increased a few bps this afternoon...leading to lower TSY note prices and higher benchmark interest rates (some pr...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 1:03 PM
The range of MBS prices continues to moderate with lower highs and higher lows. Whether you want to call this a triangle or a wedge or a wedgy triang...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 12:59 PM
OH NO...stocks are rallying!!!!!Since stocks are trading higher on the day you would expect Treasuries and MBS to be selling off right? Nope. Not Happ...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 10:37 AM
The FN 4.5 was choppy early on in the session, but has since found a range and is now taking directional guidance from the gyrations of the yield curv...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 7:53 AM
Risk Aversion consumed the marketplace this week. Treasury yields fell as stocks weakened. The price of oil plummeted and the dollar lost ground on se...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 5:11 PM
This morning kicked off with everyone's favorite equities analyst Meredith Whitney out with some bullish comments on earnings. This set a positive to...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 3:19 PM
Lenders that haven't already reprice for the worse may now be inclined to do so as we are at the lowest point of the last two sessions by a decent mar...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 2:40 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS have been jolted from their range by a higher stock indices and a rise in benchmark yields. The FN 4.5 has fallen to 100-10...
Fri, Jul 10 2009, 12:46 PM
Suddenly, nominal profit taking accelerated to the lows of the day... When "lows of the day" occur, there is always a chance that lenders will repric...
Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:15 AM
The 10 yr is at its lowest point since late May! Our bullish bias is strengthening as the recovery rally we discussed yesterday afternoon has ensued, ...
Fri, Jul 10 2009, 8:36 AM
Prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are moving higher this morning following an overnight rally in the Treasury market. Stock futures indic...
Fri, Jul 10 2009, 2:30 PM
Isnt it interesting that the S&P has moved to just about its weakest levels of the week (bearish) and the 10 yr has ticked down to its lowest yield of...
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 10:48 AM
Remember what we said about the stars aligning....Stocks confirming bearish bias + Bonds confirming bullish bias + Lower interest rate volatility = Le...
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 8:48 AM
MBS prices are noticeably lower this morning as TSY traders take profits and flight to safety trades are unwound (stocks looking to move higher) plus ...
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 6:53 PM
In light of AQ's most recent post, we'll keep this one short and more focused on charts. If down days get you, well... down, then this is for you. J...
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 3:35 PM
Plain and Simple: the market is stuck again...stocks are range bound after being oversold (short term) and benchmark TSYs have corrected from being a ...
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 1:39 PM
Following the 30 yr bond auction, rate sheet influential MBS coupons have traded in a volatile range as the 10 yr TSY attempts to show its intention t...
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 1:19 PM
When the wire first hit (which we get a bit before the public site is updated), I was concerned that the tail of 3-4 bps would be perceived as a negat...
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 1:01 PM
High Yield of 4.303%, was trading at about 4.28 before auction.
67% at high yield (the lower the better considering the 4-5 bp tail)
Bit to cove...
Wed, Jul 8 2009, 11:01 AM
Prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons will be skittish of any benchmark sell offs, nervous about letting profits sit too long (yes profit tak...
Wed, Jul 8 2009, 8:30 AM
Last Session Recap
* 3yr auction sees decent demand offset by a higher than expected yield
* reactions were mixed until stocks sold late d...
Wed, Jul 8 2009, 5:56 PM
If we were to provide you simple list of closing MBS prices over the last 6 months--say a page for each month--and you lost the page corresponding to ...
MBS Market Alerts
