Tue, Jun 4 2024, 9:56 AM
Once again, the bond market is starting the domestic session with 10yr yields several bps lower day-over-day. We can credit European bonds for that o...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 8:18 AM
"Hey Rob, thank you for continuing to highlight the insurance issues we're having, like in yesterday's commentary. Insurance companies are monitoring ...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates had a rough go of it in the 4 days following Memorial Day weekend (i.e. last week). To be fair, the tough part was limited to the first...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:22 PM
Solid Gains Despite MBS Underperformance
US Treasuries had a tough time digesting auction supply last week, ...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 11:26 AM
Time flies. It was four years ago many of us were watching the mess called “Tiger King. Summer is upon us again. “People are complaining about this be...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 10:23 AM
As far as economic data goes, there's CPI, NFP, and then there's everything else. In the "everything else" category, a small group of 3-6 report vie ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:23 PM
Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important
By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds d...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:08 PM
This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 11:42 AM
How is it that there are only three weeks until the summer solstice? Three more weeks of the amount of daylight increasing in the Northern Hemisphere,...
Fri, May 31 2024, 11:13 AM
This week's most hotly anticipated report--monthly core PCE inflation--came in 0.2% versus a median forecast of 0.3% this morning. That's welcome new...
Thu, May 30 2024, 4:21 PM
Stale PCE Helped; Fresher Version Up Next
The quarterly vs monthly PCE reports are potential sources of conf...
Thu, May 30 2024, 3:44 PM
If we overlook the nearly unchanged performance from last Friday, mortgage rates were on a 5 day losing streak as of yesterday afternoon with the 30yr...
Thu, May 30 2024, 12:30 PM
Pending home sales fell another 7.7 percent in April according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) ...
Thu, May 30 2024, 11:57 AM
Wednesday proved to be frustrating for bond market watchers and fans of low rates. Yields rose to the highest levels in several weeks without any sat...
Thu, May 30 2024, 11:53 AM
Hey, there is plenty of competition among lenders and among vendors. But, to the best of my knowledge, vendors and lenders aren’t doing this to one an...
Wed, May 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Concocting a Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
There are certain days and even weeks where the bond marke...
Wed, May 29 2024, 3:33 PM
Mortgage rates most recently bottomed out on May 15th with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenario being quoted just a hair under 7.0%. ...
Wed, May 29 2024, 11:49 AM
“I just saw three people jogging outside, and it inspired me to… get up and close the blinds.” Are you inspired to fly somewhere on vacation this summ...
Wed, May 29 2024, 11:36 AM
While US bonds were busy holding inside a narrow sideways range through the end of last week, pressure was building in the European bond market. When...
Wed, May 29 2024, 8:07 AM
Higher interest rates helped to wipe out three weeks of gains in mortgage application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market...
Tue, May 28 2024, 3:49 PM
Relatively Sharp Losses, but Nothing Special in The Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day modestly stronger, an...
Tue, May 28 2024, 3:40 PM
It was a mini rollercoaster of a day for mortgage rates with the average lender starting the day at lower levels than Friday only to end at the highes...
Tue, May 28 2024, 11:54 AM
Last week was notable for its absence of any notable developments--an outcome we considered to be the "guilty until proven innocent" baseline and the ...
Tue, May 28 2024, 11:51 AM
“Scientists got together to study the effects of alcohol on a person’s walk, and the result was staggering.” The news impacting human life and propert...
Fri, May 24 2024, 2:57 PM
The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official
If there was one objective hurdle to clear in order to consider the prese...
Fri, May 24 2024, 2:43 PM
It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market...
Fri, May 24 2024, 11:57 AM
"Abandon all hope ye who enter here." (Dante’s words, not Disney’s.) That could be the slogan of Times Square, but for those who just spent days at th...
Fri, May 24 2024, 8:57 AM
If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a dis...
Thu, May 23 2024, 4:17 PM
Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range
Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus o...
Thu, May 23 2024, 3:45 PM
For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement...
Thu, May 23 2024, 11:45 AM
Some people say, “You’re crazy to stay in residential lending in this environment, and it’s not going to improve dramatically in the near future.” No,...
Thu, May 23 2024, 9:02 AM
It's day 6 of the increasingly famous 11-day weekend (1 normal weekend plus the 3 day Memorial Day weekend and the 5 days in between without any big t...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:58 PM
No Major Reaction to Fed Minutes
Today's only event that has any precedent of inspiring rate volatility was ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:28 PM
It was another slow day for the mortgage market and one that joins a list of several other relatively inconsequential days in the past few weeks. Thi...
Wed, May 22 2024, 3:17 PM
The inventory of existing homes for sale increased from March to April, but the increased availability didn’t bolster sales. The National Association ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 11:46 AM
As many from the conference fly home, there was a lot of information flying around the conference this week. (Check out the climate and catastrophe no...
Wed, May 22 2024, 10:37 AM
It's unclear if the industry can recover from what is surely one of the most troubling rate spikes in modern economic history. Invoking one of the mos...
Wed, May 22 2024, 8:54 AM
Interest rates hit a seven-week low last week, boosting the level of refinancing applications for the third straight week, but those for home purchase...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:52 PM
No Fireworks Expected From Fed Minutes
Day 4 of the 11 day weekend is in the books and the bond market did e...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:38 PM
Referring to the past 3 business days as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates may be a bit harsh. During that time, the average top tier 30yr fixed r...
Tue, May 21 2024, 10:50 AM
Ever since the inflation data in Q1 proved to be less rate-friendly than we might have hoped, the Fed has been exactly as unfriendly as we might have ...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:33 PM
Mostly Flat After Initial Weakness
There's a risk that a theme will emerge in the coming days, but a theme t...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher on the two days at the end of last week. This put an end to a decent winning streak that had been in place since...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:35 AM
Greetings from the Arch MI meeting room space! Heard in the hallways here at the MBA’s Secondary conference in Manhattan: “Our loan officers are telli...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:16 AM
It's not too common to refer to a week with Fed meeting minutes as "super slow," but at the risk of complacency, how could the Fed possibly share any ...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:31 PM
Moderate, Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost ground at a modest to moderate clip on Friday, but not for any...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates have had a great month of May so far with almost every day being a winner up until yesterday and today. Even then, the 2 day losing st...
Fri, May 17 2024, 12:02 PM
We’re only a few days away from the MBA’s Capital Markets Conference. Attendees, don’t forget to pick up your badges, or else! (Speaking of interestin...
Fri, May 17 2024, 11:12 AM
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
Thu, May 16 2024, 5:00 PM
Gradual Weakness All Day And a Quieter Calendar Ahead
Today brought the last of the scheduled economic data ...
