Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:25 AM
Yesterday's commentary pulled an occasionally used phrase off the shelf by referring to recent weakness as a "repricing" in the broader bond market. ...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:55 PM
In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since t...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:52 PM
Data-Driven Repricing Continues
There are two kinds of "repricing" to consider when you're a mortgage market...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
No one is getting any younger, not even Clint Eastwood. Time marches on, as does, apparently, the cost of mailing a letter. The post office wants to j...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
The bond market sold off steadily and gradually overnight session despite news of escalation between Iran and Israel. Ever since the start of the war...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 5:04 PM
Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again
Friday ended up being reasonably pleasant, but mostly uneventful. Gains wer...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 4:54 PM
Wednesday was one of the worst days in decades in terms of single-day upward movement in mortgage rates. Thursday added a bit more insult to the inju...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 11:24 AM
When I win the lottery, I am going to buy one of these to heat my blankets at home. Of course, that would mean that I will have to start playing the l...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 10:22 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in modestly stronger territory but the gains started adding up in earnest after European markets opened for the day....
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:39 PM
About as Uneventful as it Could Have Been
Any time we have a huge day of movement, regardless of the reason,...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:14 PM
Wednesday's Consumer Price Index caused a brutally fast spike in mortgage rates. It wasn't notable for taking us to exceptionally high levels (Octobe...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 12:10 PM
After a day like Wednesday (one of the top 20 weakest bond market days of the past few decades), one of the top concerns is that the following day wil...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 11:35 AM
The next time you complain about your job, just be thankful you’re not working at Cinnabon. (Excuse the language.) Did you know that tomorrow is “Take...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates surged at a pace seen only one other time since October 2022. The average lender moved up by 0.28%, which is functionally equivalent t...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:16 PM
A Really Bad Day For The Bond Market
To reiterate the point made in today's morning commentary, there was a ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:43 AM
Remember when lenders were fretting about Amazon rolling out a major home loan program? The new acronym that the mortgage industry was about to start ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:38 AM
When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome. It's our way ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 8:39 AM
The interest rate for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) again topped 7 percent last week, but mortgage application activity still squeezed...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates roughly matched their highest levels in months yesterday, but managed to turn things around today. One could argue that the broader bo...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Nice Tuesday For Bonds, But It's All About Wednesday
Tuesday turned out to be great for bonds with MBS up ne...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 11:37 AM
Here in the Hill Country near Austin, Texas, there’s an active market of sellers and buyers of real estate. It is a safe bet that most use agents; aro...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 9:36 AM
The overnight session was generally a mirror image of yesterday's with 10yr yields moving several bps lower in a linear, steady trend. Unlike yesterd...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:42 PM
Uneventful, Sideways Day After Initial Losses
Today had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest yields...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved up somewhat abruptly today as the bond market lost more ground over the weekend. Rates are driven primarily by bonds, but mortga...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 11:49 AM
Bonds began the new week with follow-through selling overseas. Losses were steady and linear in both Asia and Europe. It's tempting to chalk up some...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 11:01 AM
“A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.” April 15th is in a week, the traditional date when taxes are due. Time flies. Do yo...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 3:37 PM
Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI
Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a s...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 2:56 PM
Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 11:47 AM
I head to Central Texas today (A53 on Southwest; something about maybe seeing an eclipse); statewide Texas home ownership rate is about 64 percent. Th...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 11:23 AM
The jobs number came in at 303k this morning versus a median forecast of 200k. Previous month revisions added a minimal 22k to the 3 month total and ...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mysterious Afternoon Gains Bring Yields Back Into The Range Just Before Jobs Report
It was a surprisingly an...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates may have been able to claim some resilience over the past few days, but it hasn't been a great week in general. The average lender jum...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 12:02 PM
Thursday is shaping up to be a calmer and less eventful trading day than the two most recent examples. It's similar in the sense that there was some ...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 11:30 AM
Think you can predict the future? I don’t think so. (Click on that link and think about that caption.) Some foresaw the drop in volume and income afte...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 4:06 PM
Carbon Copy Day For MBS
The date and underlying events may have changed, but the price action in MBS was str...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 3:34 PM
After starting the week with a sharp move higher, mortgage rates managed to avoid losing much ground yesterday. This was only achieved with a recover...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 12:00 PM
The other night, at the Bruce Springsteen concert in San Francisco (it was great), he did a crowd favorite, singing, “Baby I got my facts learned real...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 11:38 AM
Bonds remain under pressure this week, but the pressure is turning out to be slightly lower than it was earlier this morning. Overnight weakness was ...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 8:16 AM
Mortgage application activity drifted lower again last week , the third straight week of mostly fractional declines. The Mortgage Bankers Association’...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 4:00 PM
Technical Breakout in Treasuries. Does it Matter?
Bonds began the day in much weaker territory as Treasuries...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 3:25 PM
After starting the week with a fairly large jump, mortgage rates had a much calmer day on Tuesday. This was made all the more impressive by the fact ...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:53 AM
“I think it’s disgraceful that after 55 years, people don’t know who Neil Armstrong was… or even the type of trumpet he played.” Time flies. Did you k...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:12 AM
Bonds came into the domestic trading day with additional losses. This wasn't a foregone conclusion, but it was a distinct possibility based on past e...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:54 PM
Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
There were no whammies last week as bonds drifted sidew...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:27 PM
March ended with a streak of some of the flattest day-over-day changes in mortgage rates on record. It was all but certain that the new week/month wo...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 11:44 AM
In real Commentary news, many folks who read this Commentary are workin’ for a livin’, and many of them are managers. On a recent Truv Zoom call, Lowe...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 9:00 AM
There are two times of morning that could be considered "the open" for the bond market. As far as the futures market is concerned, it's 8:20am as tha...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:22 PM
Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day
Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of th...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:01 PM
Unfortunately, we don't have a great way to measure all of the past precedents, but it's safe to say that the this was one of the least volatile weeks...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
