Wed, May 1 2024, 9:00 AM
Rising interest rates continue to constrain mortgage borrowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan ap...
Wed, May 1 2024, 8:57 AM
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 4:39 PM
More Ammo For a Hawkish Fed, But Data is at Least as Important
Bonds began the day flat but lost ground quic...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 3:47 PM
A mortgage rate is highly subjective and can vary for a variety of reasons. A news story that provides an outright level like 7.5% requires context a...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 12:26 PM
Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 12:24 PM
Home price increases continued to accelerate in February even as interest rates also moved higher. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and the...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 11:45 AM
Don’t believe in climate change, rising sea levels, or cities sinking (“subsiding”)? Venice is sinking. So are Rotterdam, Bangkok, and New York (thoug...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Decent Resilience in Spite of a Few Headwinds
Considering the volatility that may lie ahead, Monday ended up...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates didn't change much at all over the weekend with the average lender still in the highest territory since November. The average conventi...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 11:52 AM
“I accidentally rubbed ketchup in my eyes. Now I have Heinzsight.” In terms of foresight, looking ahead, there are some interesting things going on ou...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 11:17 AM
Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 5:23 PM
As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 5:21 PM
Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers ...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 12:25 PM
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reco...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 11:52 AM
There seems to be a bit of a baby boom going on out there. Prospective home buyers who need a place for a growing family quickly find out that residen...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 4:01 PM
Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data
Today's big surprise was the PCE price index compone...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 3:50 PM
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed's favorite...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 11:40 AM
I travel a little bit, so it was with great interest that I read, “The Department of Transportation… will soon require airlines to quickly refund pass...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 11:37 AM
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a ...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:43 PM
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combina...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:10 PM
The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday's levels despite bond market movement th...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 11:23 AM
Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next l...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 10:31 AM
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow ra...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 8:36 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell back for the first time in...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Straightforward Gains After PMI Data
Tuesday's session was infinitely more interesting than Monday's with th...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by day to day changes in the bond market. Bonds are focused on the Fed and the economic data that shapes Fed decisions. To...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 12:47 PM
Existing home sales posted strong gains in February while sales of new homes slipped slightly. In March each category switched directions. The U.S. Ce...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:56 AM
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to u...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:35 AM
“The next time you dislike your life, remember it’s all about perspective. I know someone who reads 2-3 books a week, works out twice a day, has no fi...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:19 PM
Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week
Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week. There were no major events or economic reports to c...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 11:28 AM
When I was a kid, whenever I would walk by a pay phone or newspaper vending machine, I’d check the coin change slot. Or periodically check under my Da...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 8:47 AM
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarter...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:32 PM
Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a r...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:30 PM
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has e...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 11:33 AM
It is “Take Your Child to Work Day” next Thursday which, if you work from home, is probably like a day off from school for the tyke. (I won’t be bring...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 10:06 AM
The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between I...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:55 PM
Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling
The bad news is that bonds resumed their weaker tendencies toda...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Tuesday marked the highest mortgage rates since November, capping a mini surge that began after last week's inflation data. After a moderate improveme...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 12:09 PM
After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 11:12 AM
What loan officer hasn’t had a memorable co-signing experience? Some more so than others. Along those lines, if you head to Disneyland or Disneyworld,...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:32 PM
Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers?
Bonds enjoyed their best day in more than a month and a h...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today after hitting the highest levels since mid November yesterday. Some lenders were down as much as an eighth of a perc...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 11:37 AM
“We base our business model on lots of things, but not on our ability to predict rates.” Remember when there used to be “a flight to quality” when the...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 11:16 AM
The bond market is getting off to a stronger start today despite an absence of any new motivations in the news or economic calendar. In fact, the cal...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 8:35 AM
Mortgage interest rates rose for the second straight week, and so did the volume of mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:56 PM
The bad times keep rolling for mortgage rates with the average conventional 30yr fixed rate back up to 7.5% according to our daily index. This is qui...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:54 PM
Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew
Morning hours were frustrating for the bond market as we w...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:41 AM
While builder confidence in the market for new residential construction improved in March, it remained flat in April and residential construction numb...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:30 AM
“Congratulations to the Kardashians on their 20th season. And to me for never having watched a single minute of a single episode.” There are certainly...
