Fri, Jun 2 2023, 6:40 PM
After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn't seem to care. The jobs report prove...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 4:13 PM
What Debt Ceiling? Yields Follow NFP Higher
After being utterly bombarded for weeks, newswire feeds at tradi...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 2:00 PM
Nonfarm payrolls were up 339k, well above the 190k forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, well above the 3.5% forecast. Ho...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 9:53 AM
While lenders are grappling with steadily increasing Agency repurchase requests, it’s National Donut Day! Someone had better offer those folks at Stat...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Data-Driven Rally, But There's Bigger Data Ahead
Yesterday's economic data made for a bit of back and forth ...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 1:13 PM
Bonds had been hoping for econ data to reinforce a ceiling after a recent run to the highest yields in months and the past few days have delivered. T...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 9:54 AM
The United States has about 336 million people. Did you know that 1/3 of them live within a 500-mile radius of Nashville? This is a cool site for anyo...
Wed, May 31 2023, 4:43 PM
After hitting the highest levels in several months last Friday, mortgage rates have fallen fairly quickly in the new week. As bond markets improved t...
Wed, May 31 2023, 3:58 PM
Domestic Events Mostly Overshadowed by European Influence
While we can trace some of this morning's back and...
Wed, May 31 2023, 1:26 PM
The big news so far this week is the absence of any concrete conclusion to the debt ceiling debate (delivered in box labelled "debt ceiling debate sol...
Wed, May 31 2023, 9:09 AM
A biologist, a chemist, and a statistician are out hunting. The biologist shoots at a deer and misses five feet to the left. The chemist takes a shot ...
Wed, May 31 2023, 8:33 AM
Rising rates and sparse inventories continue to hamper the mortgage market. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a...
Tue, May 30 2023, 10:53 PM
Nice Rally With Buyers Back in The Office
Any time bonds make a big (but not necessarily completely justifie...
Tue, May 30 2023, 4:19 PM
The past 2 weeks were fairly rough for fans of low mortgage rates. The average lender moved higher at the fastest pace since February over that time....
Tue, May 30 2023, 12:55 PM
Whether it was the economic headwinds implied by the stop-gap debt ceiling proposal or a return to the market among traders who'd pared positions ahea...
Tue, May 30 2023, 11:57 AM
One of the major home price indices showed a continued increase in national home prices in March and less waffling in some local markets. A second i...
Tue, May 30 2023, 10:35 AM
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services What do dozens of decision-makers know that would lead them to invest in their origination techno...
Fri, May 26 2023, 3:45 PM
It was nearly impossible to avoid news regarding the debt ceiling this week, but how much does it actually matter? Let's make sure we're on the same ...
Fri, May 26 2023, 2:04 PM
Bonds Diverge Over Data Implications
It's been a consistently bad week for the bond market and this morning'...
Fri, May 26 2023, 11:12 AM
Did you know that wheat futures prices are at a 2-year low? And lumber prices continue to drop? Those numbers should help reduce inflation. During the...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:34 PM
It was bad news but big news a few days ago when the average top tier 30yr fixed rate made it back to 7% for the first time since early March. After ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:24 PM
Debt Ceiling Debate Volatility Causing Issues For Bonds
Treasuries sold off in a linear fashion today--much ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 1:35 PM
Despite vague hints of support over the past few days, the bond market is back to the same old tricks seen last week. It's actually a pretty simple t...
Thu, May 25 2023, 11:48 AM
The number of contracts to purchase pre-owned homes was unchanged in April. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 9:34 AM
My notes from the MBA’s conference this week continue, including talk about new home sales being +4.1 percent for the month (+11 percent year over yea...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:43 PM
Wednesday was a fairly volatile day for mortgage rates. The movement wasn't extreme, but there were a few lead changes. The day began with the avera...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:27 PM
Today is Best Viewed as "In-Range Volatility"
Bonds began the day on the back foot as UK inflation crushed f...
Wed, May 24 2023, 10:26 AM
As the MBA’s Secondary Conference in New York wraps up, and jokes are made about who actually paid for Fannie’s reception (informally titled “The Repu...
Wed, May 24 2023, 9:25 AM
UK inflation data came in HOT overnight with the core m/m reading up1.3% vs 0.9% f'cast, a far cry from the 0.4% m/m core inflation in the US and anot...
Wed, May 24 2023, 8:35 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.6 percent on a seas...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:58 PM
Today's headline is the most dramatic part of today's story on mortgage rates. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate has been mostly operating in a 6-...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:49 PM
Debt Ceiling Finally Having an Impact
After several weeks in the news cycle spotlight, the debt ceiling is f...
Tue, May 23 2023, 1:30 PM
Today's most relevant econ data--S&P Global Services PMI--came in at 55.1 versus a 51.5 forecast. In a world where the bond market is generally afrai...
Tue, May 23 2023, 9:47 AM
Does your company have a decent product for a borrower who crowd-funded their down payment? How about a house with a granny unit in the back? Trends i...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:36 PM
There are some broad rate surveys/indices that show 30yr fixed mortgage rates under 6.5% or close to it, but it's a bit of a mystery as to how such a ...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:24 PM
Why Are We Here And Where Are We Going?
The bond market has entered a lull heading into Memorial Day weekend...
Mon, May 22 2023, 12:53 PM
If you're as determined as we are to avoid reading any more than you need to about the debt ceiling, then the Fed is pretty much the only game in town...
Mon, May 22 2023, 10:31 AM
If you’re staying here in Manhattan, space is at a premium. I don’t recall the last time my room had a bathroom where one could turn the shower on, fl...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:24 PM
The debt ceiling debate is all over the news, but it's a different ceiling is commanding more of the bond market's attention. Still, we wouldn't say ...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:14 PM
What The Range Breakout Means For The Outlook
With bonds seeing additional weakness after breaking above 3.6...
Fri, May 19 2023, 11:05 AM
Yesterday's headline was "range breakout?" with a question mark. We only need a change in punctuation to adapt the headline to today's reality. Yiel...
Fri, May 19 2023, 10:10 AM
For me, yesterday involved a trip from Connecticut to Northern California, with talk of a lack of inventory, relatively high mortgage rates, and loan ...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:44 PM
Range Breakout ?
The day began with data-driven selling pushing 10yr yields up and over the 3.60% range boun...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:20 PM
It may not be a death by a thousand cuts, but mortgage rates are suffering a bit of blood loss from roughly 5 cuts. Specifically, the past 5 days hav...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:04 PM
Existing home sales account for the lion's share of all home sales in the U.S. Unlike "New Home Sales," this data series tracks previously sold homes...
Thu, May 18 2023, 9:14 AM
This Commentary has made a name for itself in covering breaking, shocking news that other, lesser outlets are too timid to even mention. “One day I ho...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:45 PM
For The Bond Market, The Waiting Will Continue
Phrases like "hurry up and wait" and "ho hum day" have been i...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving higher since late last week, ultimately hitting the highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday, but that trend ende...
Wed, May 17 2023, 1:04 PM
One would think that the debt ceiling debate would be a key issue for the bond market considering Treasuries are sort of the definitive US government ...
Wed, May 17 2023, 11:39 AM
The April Residential Construction Report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development shows mixed results in April...
