Tue, May 2 2023, 10:07 AM
If you’re really happy when a scheduled conference or Zoom call is cancelled, does that mean you’re in the wrong line of work? (Asking for a friend.) ...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:46 PM
Snowball Sell-Off to Start The Month
Sometimes headlines reference the beginning or end of any given day/wee...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:42 PM
Whether we call it a bailout, a failure, or a fire sale, First Republic Bank was formally absorbed by JP Morgan Chase early this morning. Interest rat...
Mon, May 1 2023, 12:13 PM
The bond market is in a trifecta of trouble so far this morning. Just before the open, JPM announced that it was assuming the loans and deposits of F...
Mon, May 1 2023, 9:25 AM
Did you know that cows snooze laying down for the four hours of sleep they need a day? Did you know that horses sleep standing up? These tidbits may c...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:40 PM
Stronger Today, Sideways in General
Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates fell nicely to start the week but only after rising rather abruptly in the previous two weeks. That said, short term ups and downs are ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:54 AM
Bonds were ushered into the domestic session in moderately stronger territory thanks to a friendly policy announcement from the Bank of Japan and soft...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:08 AM
“Rob, earlier this week you posted some ‘units funded’ information from the MBA showing a dramatic decline from a few years ago... Dollar-wise, certai...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:38 PM
Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP
Today's GDP number came in lower than expected at 1.1 vs ...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:12 PM
Interest rates are determined by the price/yield of bonds. Bonds can take cues from several places, but inflation always matters. Inflation had been...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 3:41 PM
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 12:30 PM
The bond market is standing in front of the whack-a-mole game with only 2 holes. On one side is the mini banking crisis. On the other side is inflat...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 10:27 AM
Born in Ukraine, Golda Meir said, “Old age is like a plane flying through a storm. Once you are aboard there is nothing you can do about it." (Doubtfu...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:48 PM
For mortgage rates and the broader bond market, everything has been fairly sideways in the bigger picture since the initial wave of bank drama in earl...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Follow First Republic News Cycle; MBS Underperform
First Republic Bank (FRC) remains in focus as a tra...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 11:23 AM
On the heels of yesterday's weak earnings, First Republic was back in the news this morning with reports that it's exploring a fire sale that would in...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 10:14 AM
There are 3 things that tell the truth: small children, drunk people, and yoga pants. HMDA data is close behind. Warning: sobering thoughts ahead, and...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 8:32 AM
Mortgage application volume increased during the week ending April 21. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measu...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds move for a variety of reasons, but one of the most basic is due to their function as a...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Risk Aversion Returns. Bonds Like It
First Republic's weaker earnings set the tone in the overnight session ...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 1:06 PM
Today brings the latest monthly installment of the two major home price indices from Case Shiller and the FHFA. While these numbers only bring us up ...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 12:34 PM
New home sales figures bounced higher again in Marc h, outperforming February sales by 9.6 percent. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing a...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 11:17 AM
Weaker earnings from a few notable names, including First Republic Bank... Weaker economic outlooks at home and abroad... Debt ceiling trepidation......
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 9:51 AM
While here in Denver I received an email. “Rob, does what’s going on in Florida impact lenders?” I had to figure out if the author was asking about Di...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 4:07 PM
While the news media bonfire on the recent LLPA tweak is only getting started, it's time for us to shift gears back to boring old mortgage rates (if y...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Should Have Taken The 3-Day Weekend!
Every so often, the bond market has a Monday that does absolutely nothi...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 1:05 PM
The bond market remains in an aggressively sideways holding pattern as traders wait for economic data and events that have enough street cred to meani...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 9:31 AM
I head to Colorado Springs this morning, the scene of $3,000 mountain bikes in bike racks on top of $500 cars. There are roughly 380 bank branches in ...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:06 PM
Seemingly overnight, the internet is awash with news regarding a "new," unfair tax on mortgage borrowers with higher credit scores. Some have gone so ...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:01 PM
From Slightly Stronger to Slightly Weaker After PMI Data
The "data dependent" theme kept on rockin' all week...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 1:06 PM
Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory and made some gains early. The 9:45am PMI data was the only item on the calendar and we'd consider...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 10:17 AM
California, home of nearly 25 percent of home loans, is doing some interesting things, utility-wise. Last year came AB 205 which instructs the state’s...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 4:54 PM
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) measures the sales of previously owned homes. These so-called Existing Home Sales account for a vast major...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 4:36 PM
As is typical on any given Thursday, many media outlets are citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. This week's installment suggests rates are highe...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 10:44 AM
Merry 420, which coincidentally was the yield on the 2-year Treasury note early today. Data and lawsuits about data… What’s in your wallet? Or maybe I...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 10:36 AM
The bond market is certainly in a lull in terms of highly consequential data and events. It will be almost a full two weeks before the next Fed meeti...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates had been just over 7% at the beginning of March. Then the failure of Silicon Valley Bank kicked off a mini banking crisis that; when c...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 4:43 PM
Bonds Battle Back After Threatening The Range Yet Again
If yesterday looked like a challenge to the prevaili...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 11:54 AM
The bond market is nothing if not willing to react to economic data these days. After all, that data will add up to a very big revelation regarding t...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 9:57 AM
“Yesterday I asked my kindergartener what she did in school, and she replied ‘nothing,’ then later I went on Instagram and her teacher had posted a pi...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 8:41 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index for the week ended April 14 was down 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates had a calmer day on Tuesday compared to Monday with the average lender only moving up by less than an eighth of a percent. Lenders who...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 4:42 PM
Super Sideways After AM Volatility
It turned out to be an intensely uneventful day for the bond market after...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 12:39 PM
Residential construction data for March didn’t come close to matching February’s performance, but the rate of housing starts held its own. The good n...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 12:34 PM
In a week without an obvious focus or flashpoint for the bond market, it wouldn't be too surprising to see traders fall back on a range-trading strate...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 8:48 AM
“Last week I told a joke over a Zoom meeting. It wasn’t even remotely funny.” Working remotely from home, or at least adopting a hybrid model, is some...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 4:52 PM
After bottoming out at the lowest levels in months in the first week of April, mortgage rates have been rising fairly quickly. As of this afternoon, ...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 4:35 PM
Frustratingly Persistent Selling Pressure in Bonds
Bonds got off to a rocky start well before the domestic s...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 2:05 PM
The index that measures the confidence of new home builders in the market for their product inched slightly higher again in April. The National Associ...
