Mon, Apr 17 2023, 12:31 PM
If you had to reduce the past few weeks of bond market movement to the most basic of explanations, you might say that the jobs report on April 7th led...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 9:28 AM
A friend of mine who lives in her own unit in a mobile home park was telling me that her rent is about to go up by a huge amount, and said that, “That...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 3:57 PM
Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off?
The day began with a puzzler: bonds sold off abruptly ...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 12:32 PM
Perhaps there's some recency bias in play, but we're hard pressed to remember a big, obvious bond market sell-off in response to a big miss in Retail ...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 9:42 AM
Who is Harrison Ruffin Tyler? Answer: He is the last living grandchild of former U.S. president John Tyler, born in 1790. (Tyler was President from 18...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 5:34 PM
There are several ways to get an idea of where mortgage rates are on any given day, but if that day is a Thursday, you're most likely to get that idea...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 5:16 PM
Longer Term Rates Lose Ground Despite Softer Inflation
Today's initial focus was on the big drop in Producer...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 10:19 AM
(Warning: cuteness ahead.) How does it feel to be a loan officer dealing with multiple borrowers on one loan? The study of how people borrow money, an...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 9:26 AM
If only the bond market cared as much about producer prices as it does for consumer prices! The latter had a fine showing yesterday with CPI coming i...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:25 PM
If we could only blame one thing for the huge jump in interest rates seen since early 2022, it would be inflation. That fact led to a high degree of ...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:11 PM
Mixed Reactions to CPI and Fed Minutes
This morning's "as-expected" inflation data was very well received by...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 10:44 AM
The importance of economic reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated in the current environment. Case in point, this month's i...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 10:29 AM
This morning I head from Seattle to Atlanta for some MBA/STRATMOR Peer Group meetings. Seattle has its share of hipsters, and sometimes one needs a tr...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 8:23 AM
Mortgage applications increased last week for the fifth time in six weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a m...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today (the average lender drifted microscopically, and Wednesday's CPI data has infinitely more power to move the needle...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:29 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Wednesday morning brings the most consequential economic data of the next several weeks in t...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 12:19 PM
With the global financial market mostly firing on all cylinders after the various closures of the holiday weekend, the post-NFP defensiveness remains ...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 10:22 AM
“The human brain is the most amazing organ in the human body. It works 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, from birth up until the moment that you buy yo...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 4:00 PM
Unofficially Still Waiting For The Week to Begin
Bonds took today to get caught up after an unconventional h...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates put in a great performance last week--especially if you stopped paying attention on Thursday. At that time, it was the best weekly dro...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 12:34 PM
The juxtaposition of an uncharacteristically early close on Friday, an important nonfarm payrolls release, and widespread holiday closures in European...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 11:14 AM
Fannie Mae’s monthly survey of consumers’ attitudes toward buying or selling a home and their own financial situation showed a mixture of sentiments i...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 10:48 AM
I just looked at the balance of my checking account: $LMAO.00. Here’s a tip of the day to keep your bank account from going to $0 with this non-mortga...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 4:58 PM
Interest rates were remarkably calm in the last week of March. The market was in the process of shifting focus from the banking sector back to economi...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 3:03 PM
Straightforward Selling After Jobs Data; CPI Up Next
While it's possible to find a few folks on the internet...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 11:53 AM
This morning's jobs report was very close to perfectly in line with forecasts. While the job count declined from last month, the report was strong ov...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 10:11 AM
Rates can be 0 percent, but if there are no homes to buy, lender and real estate agent activity will grind to a halt. I realize that this is an extrem...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates put in a solid performance so far this week with substantial declines to the lowest levels in months as of yesterday afternoon. Thursd...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:32 PM
Weeklong Rally Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report
10yr yields began the week over 3.5% and rallied more than 20...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 12:04 PM
The tone of Wednesday's trading was a bit different than the previous two days. All 3 featured motivation for lower rates/yields from the economic da...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 9:26 AM
My cat Myrtle never turns down a good helping of enchanting, diced, barbequed beef. (Sorry vegetarians: La Principessa is a carnivore.) I realize that...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 4:16 PM
Rates Rally Cautiously After ISM Services Data
On the approach, today's ISM Services PMI looked like the 2nd...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 3:53 PM
It seems like only a few weeks ago that the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was surging up to 7% from 6% just a few weeks earlier. In fact, it doesn...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:09 AM
“I’ve had $8,000 in my bank account and I’ve had $8. Let me tell you, the $8 lasted longer.” $42 billion in deposits didn’t last long in Silicon Valle...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:03 AM
Apart from Friday's jobs report, this morning's ISM Services (or "non-manufacturing") data was the week's most relevant market mover in terms of sched...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 8:35 AM
March was a good month for the mortgage market with application volume growing for four straight weeks, but as the month ended, so did the winning str...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:44 PM
Downbeat Data Primes The Pump For Shift
Tuesday's Job Openings report combined with Monday's ISM Manufacturi...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:35 PM
As long as we're talking about the best case scenario conforming 30yr fixed mortgage rate, the average lender officially hit 2-month lows today, just ...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 12:43 PM
It wasn’t yet the season, but February’s home price environment seems to have gotten a jump on the vaunted spring housing market. Black Knight’s Mort...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 11:17 AM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory as they followed European yields higher overnight. But the domestic session is looking up thanks to JOLTS dat...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 10:25 AM
I was having dinner in Manhattan last night, with the topics including Virgin Orbit filing for bankruptcy and the continuing Homepoint rumors (any que...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 9:56 AM
Construction spending remained unremarkable in February, declining fractionally from January (-0.1 percent) while maintaining a 5.2 percent improvemen...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as investors reacted to economic data that showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply ...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 3:49 PM
Downbeat Data Puts Downward Pressure on Rates
Although there was some cause for concern in the overnight tra...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 10:20 AM
Today I’m in Manhattan, having flown in to one of the nicer malls I’ve ever walked through, aka LaGuardia Airport. ($8 billion goes a long way.) No, I...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 9:39 AM
The bond market is still in the process of reestablishing composure after the recent banking panic. The bank episode sent Fed rate expectations plumm...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 6:18 PM
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 3:34 PM
Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data
Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and ...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 12:12 PM
Today brings two new updates on inflation. Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously. This isn't nearly...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 9:27 AM
“My landlord told me that she would like to have a chat with me about the house's sky-high heating bills this winter. I told her, ‘Sure thing, wheneve...
