Thu, Jul 20 2023, 11:55 AM
Watching the bond market in real time can be stressful if you work in a highly rate-sensitive industry. There's a tendency to get caught up in the in...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 10:16 AM
Ever see the movie “Cocoon”? Is there an X-rated version? Seven of the 10 fastest-growing metro areas over the past year are in Florida. The Census Bu...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:24 PM
Mortgage rates may have spiked to the highest levels in roughly 8 months two weeks ago, but they fully recovered as of last Thursday. Since then, ver...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:07 PM
Working Our Way Back to Powell
The last Fed meeting in June wasn't a huge market mover in and of itself, but...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 3:55 PM
The rate of both construction permitting and housing starts retreated from their May levels last month. The significant increase in estimated starts ...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 11:51 AM
After bonds rallied hard last week, EU bonds began to rally harder. This was most noticeable in the current week where 10yr Bund yields fell all the ...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 11:07 AM
Think mortgage math is complicated? Many in the nation are focused on air conditioning. Why is it measured in tons? It harkens back to the days of usi...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 9:35 AM
Applications for refinancing rebounded last week from the previous week’s holiday-related slowdown but purchase applications slid lower. The Mortgage ...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 4:33 PM
Mixed Reaction to Data. Range Remains Intact
European bonds set the tone in the overnight session after a no...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 2:18 PM
Increases in single-family rents soared in the post-pandemic environment but have now moderated to the annual levels in the pre-pandemic years of 201...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 1:27 PM
Today's session was off to a stronger start thanks to a sharper rally in European bonds overnight, but domestic economic data pushed back early. This...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 11:08 AM
There’s a definite shift going on in banks as continued layoff rumors in jumbo and portfolio divisions are rampant. At the other end of the job chain,...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 11:00 AM
Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed homes rose another point in July according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)....
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates jumped a bit higher last Friday after dropping triumphantly during the first four days of the week. That bounce may have cast some dou...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:17 PM
Slightly Stronger, Sideways, and Still Waiting
Monday's trading session offered little by way of anything si...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 12:33 PM
With the heightened focus on economic data as a means to track progress on the Fed's inflation-fighting policies, and the reality of the data calendar...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 10:25 AM
I am often asked about the jumbo segment of our business. Frankly, aside from the coasts and a couple cities in-between, much of the nation is not ove...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 4:12 PM
Good Times Still Mostly Rolling Despite Token Correction on Friday
Bonds sold off on Friday, with the easies...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates spiked abruptly last week after several economic reports showed the economy doing better than expected. Now this week, key inflation da...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 11:59 AM
Bonds rallied fairly hard during the first four days of the week, entirely restoring the ground lost in the previous week. Yesterday afternoon, we di...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 10:48 AM
“If they raise the interest rates one more time, you're going to hear Janet Yellen.” Much of the talk in the hallways here at the California Associati...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 5:13 PM
Farther vs further... One is for distance and the other means "additional/additionally." The dictionary may disagree, but only because too many of y...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 4:58 PM
Willingness to Rally Without Much Motivation
Bonds put in a nice day of gains after a mixed performance in t...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 11:50 AM
Thursday begins with 2 data points that could be traded either way. In one corner, we have another resilient reading in the Jobless Claims data (237k...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 10:38 AM
As rumors continue to swirl regarding the purchase of a well-known Southeastern Texas mortgage bank, lenders are watching the current drop in rates. I...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates had been moving higher fairly rapidly over the past 2 weeks with the average lender easily into the 7% range for a top tier conventiona...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:40 PM
Great Reaction to CPI, But What's Next?
Today's CPI data serves the important role of pushing back on the na...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:49 AM
After plenty of anticipation over the past few days, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrived this morning with fairly good news for the bond market. C...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:39 AM
Who’s in your wallet? I imagine every compliance person at every bank, large and small, are once again reviewing their policies after the Consumer Fin...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 9:55 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports a slight increase in the volume of mortgage applications during the week ended July 7. MBA’s seasonally...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:48 PM
Bonds Will Rally After CPI (Or They'll Sell Off)
Let's not build up the upcoming CPI data too much. It's im...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:47 PM
While experts might be able to debate the underlying causes, they can all agree that inflation is the key reason that rates skyrocketed at the fastest...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 10:05 AM
Don’t forget that today, 7-11, is Free Slurpee Day, but that this Sunday the price of a first-class mail stamp is going up from 63 cents to 66 cents, ...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 9:43 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, it was clear that we'd be waiting for this Wednesday's CPI data as the next relevant input for the bond market. Desp...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 4:10 PM
The most important thing to know about mortgage rates so far this week is that they lived through last week. Living through last week means rates rea...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 3:53 PM
Sideways at Weak Levels Despite Monday's Rally
If we wanted to make the case for anything about the first tw...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 2:29 PM
The Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May doesn’t even hint at a housing crisis on the horizon. Affordability is again (or maybe still) a concern, ...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 11:30 AM
The week begins with bonds in modestly stronger territory after a bit of initial volatility. None of the trading after last Friday's NFP has mattered...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 10:05 AM
“The world is going to come to an end tonight at midnight. Tune in tomorrow to see if it did!” Sensationalist headlines or bad predictions are tiresom...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 6:10 PM
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like we might have seen the last of 7% mortgage rates, but the last 2 weeks have been brutal. The culprit has been a ...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 4:08 PM
NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally
Things could have gone better or worse today following t...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 12:13 PM
Despite missing the forecast by just a bit, today's NFP number is largely as expected (209k vs 225k f'cast and unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6). Bonds initia...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 10:32 AM
What’s our Federal Reserve concerned about? I was in a restaurant last night in Truckee, California, and was shown the table and handed the menu. When...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:51 PM
It seems like just last week (because it was) we were commenting on the extreme LACK of volatility in the mortgage rate landscape. Starting last Thur...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:29 PM
Data Confirms Bond Market Fears
Yesterday's recap suggested that bonds were bracing for impact from incoming...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 11:29 AM
We already know that bonds are especially sensitive to economic data right now, and we knew that today offered an uncommonly condensed schedule with s...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 10:35 AM
Apparently China is not paying interest on its sovereign debt… What is it waiting for? If you’re waiting for lower rates to give your business a “shot...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 8:37 AM
The volume of mortgage applications fell during the last week of June as compared to the prior week which had contained an adjustment to account for t...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:59 PM
While the mainstream mortgage rate indices continue operating in the mid-to-upper 6% range, actual rates are moving higher into the 7% range by the ti...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Brace For Impact From Data
Bonds sold off somewhat abruptly on Wednesday with little by way of overt j...
