Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:16 PM
A global advance in equities helped US stocks continue to rally on Tuesday. The last two days have seen stocks rise enough to erase losses from the pr...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:14 PM
One of our colleagues put it best a moment ago when he said: "looks like the market isn't moving much... Headed to lunch..."
Indeed after an excee...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:00 PM
Bottom Line: not exceedingly strong, but not horrible. However, initial reaction in bond markets is to the downside. MBS are off a few ticks to 101-...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:42 AM
We've been talking more and more about the "paradigm shift" occurring in the broader markets. In general, mounting evidence suggests that the equitie...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:27 AM
Trading has been volatile in the first 90 minutes on Monday but markets now appear to have found a direction. The only data release this morning was t...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:27 AM
While delinquencies are still on the rise reflecting a continued weak economy and rising unemployment, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are also increasing ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 10:11 AM
ISM Non Manufacturing Survey Results-
* headline index at 50.9% versus 50.0 Consensus
* business activity index 55.1 in sept (consensus 51...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 8:29 AM
So Far This Am...
* Dollar Falls After G7 Meeting.
* "Strong Dollar" talk may have contributed to bond rallies last week
* MBS mostly...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 8:22 AM
Markets slipped 1.8% last week but overall September saw shares rise 3.6%, indicating that investors do not believe the market has overheated despite ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 5:08 PM
TOMORROW! With today's lack of data and ultimately, movement, tomorrow's impending events trump today's actual events (or lack thereof...).
Ok, I ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 3:33 PM
After getting pulled into a slightly higher range on late session stock strength, tsy's decided it would be best to go ahead and hold the line at prev...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 2:10 PM
Whether it's the fact that almost any trading session would seem anticlimactic after last week's tumult or whether it's a factor of relatively low vol...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:17 PM
The other day my boss commented that, "If every employee contributed half of their life savings to our firm, we'd be on the road to profitability!" I ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:15 PM
Last week was a very nice week for mortgage rates. The economic data was rather mixed, some pointing toward economic growth, while others hinting a...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:07 PM
As far as outright price levels are concerned, there is not a high degree of panic warranted by current price levels as MBS are still above 101-20 and...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 12:38 PM
This morning’s employment report was called “terrible,” “dreary,” “bleak,” and “painful,” but halfway through the session equity markets are only mode...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 12:19 PM
Mortgage rates moved a few basis points lower yesterday after the bond market experienced what AQ and MG refer to as a "forced rally". Stocks were se...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 10:28 AM
The rally one would expect to occur after weak labor market data....took place yesterday. Now the bond market is giving some of it back. After hittin...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 8:30 AM
SEPT NONFARM PAYROLLS -263,000 vs. CONSENSUS -180,000 vs. AUG -201,000 (PREV -216,000). WORSE THAN EXPECTED. Yesterday's bond market rally has been c...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 8:17 AM
Mixed data caused US equities to simply plummet yesterday, marking the third straight decline in markets. The benchmark S&P 500 fell 2.6% on the day, ...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 5:45 PM
With a nod to any Monty Python fans in the audience, I feel compelled to let you know that this weekly wrap will not be providing any sort of dairy de...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 4:17 PM
For the sake of continuity, here's an exceedingly brief update in order to fill the "MBS AFTERNOON" spot. AQ and I got caught up writing, editing, di...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 2:51 PM
The immediate trader reaction to weak jobs data pushed the 10yr note yield from 3.18% all the way down to 3.10%. The precipitous fall in benchmark yi...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 2:02 PM
My uncle used to say, "Do not corner something that you know is meaner than you." Or bigger, for that matter. Speaking of big, the numbers yesterday s...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 11:51 AM
The FN 4.5 is trading +0-11 at 101-19 yielding 4.3043%. The FN 4.0 is +0-15 at 99-15 yielding 4.0586%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.1446%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 11:05 AM
Existing home sales could see a boost next month, according to an industry survey that looks at contracts that have been signed but not yet finalized....
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 8:45 AM
The 10yr TSY note yield has broken 3.27% resistance, leading "rate sheet influential" MBS prices higher.The FN 4.5 is +0-05 at 101-13 yielding 4.3275%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 8:24 AM
The fourth quarter begins today with a torrent of fresh data, plus speeches from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Atlanta Fed president Sandra Pianalto.
...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 4:59 PM
Today has been unique. In recent weeks, rallies have taken us outside well-established trading ranges, but always with mitigating caveats or forthcom...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:49 PM
The Federal Reserve today reported on their weekly purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the five trading days between September 24...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:36 PM
Given our recent admonitions about waiting for NFP as the most important data event of the week, the directionality of today's rally would lead us to ...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:20 PM
Mortgage interest rates are flirting with record low territory again according to the results of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The su...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 2:05 PM
Everyone knows the drill: small originators sell loans to mid-tier investors such as AmTrust or Franklin American, who in turn sell their loans to com...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 1:27 PM
Stocks are once again tumbling as talk of increased regulation is underway on Capital Hill. Fresh data on the nation’s manufacturing sector didn’t hel...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 1:22 PM
As the third quarter ended yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged as prices of mortgage backed securities held to the recent range. Since MBS rall...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 11:53 AM
The recent bond market rally has led the yield curve and benchmark TSYs into numerous resistance levels that, if broken, might imply a general shift i...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 8:50 AM
The AM So Far...
* ADP worse than expected at -254k
* GDP Better than expected at -.7 vs. consensus of -1.2
# Bonds Initial reaction DOW...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 8:21 AM
Mortgage rates remained below 5% for the second week in a row, yet the low rates fail to spur increased appetite for refinancing, new loans, or purcha...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 8:14 AM
It’s one day before the start of the fourth quarter and global stock markets are rallying. US equity futures are looking to erase yesterday’s losses, ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 5:04 PM
Maybe the markets will find some sort of impetus to get directional tomorrow, but so far this week, Monday's extension of Friday's rally merely set us...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 3:32 PM
After hitting an intraday high of 101-16 this morning, an unfriendly trend channel developed and the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low print of 101-04. ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 2:42 PM
This morning we had our final revision to the 2nd quarter’s GDP number. Folks always wonder, “Why can’t the statisticians get it right the first time ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 2:07 PM
The Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of Comptroller of the Currency reported on Tuesday that mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are st...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 1:52 PM
The stock market turned ugly this morning after an index from the windy city reported that business conditions were back in the red. An earlier report...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 1:43 PM
Mortgage rates were were unchanged for the most part yesterday as prices of mortgage-backed securities held to their recent range. Following Monday’s...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 1:03 PM
Plainly and simply, prices are at their lowest point of the day. And though this STILL leaves MBS over 101-00 on the 4.5 and the 10yr is still under ...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 12:31 PM
Despite a rally in equity markets, prices of mortgage-backed securities moved higher yesterday. No economic data was released, trading volume was ver...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 11:36 AM
September Consumer Confidence Survey data registered a 53.1 read vs. the consensus estimate of 57.0 and the previous 54.5 (revised from 54.1). Followi...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 10:00 AM
Home prices continued to stabilize in 18 of the 20 metropolitan areas surveyed in July, an industry survey showed Tuesday. Thirteen of the 20 metro ar...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 8:57 AM
Good Morning. The rates market is giving back a portion of yesterday's gains. Stock futures are higher. The 10yr TSY note yield is trading near 3.33%....
