MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
Open MBSonMND Dashboard | ||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Pricing as of 4:02 PM EST |
Market Updates
3:21PM :
Excellent Technical Support Bounce As 10's Break Short Term Trend
After 10yr yields hit a resistance bounce at the bottom of their recent trend channel higher in yield, they subsequently broke lower and returned to that same trendline, but this time for a support bounce. Classic pivot move.... Knock on one side of the door, leave the house, knock on the other side, move on...
Let's just hope that "moving on" is the gameplan after tomorrow's auction!
2:42PM :
ALERT:
Reprices for Better Reported After Beige Book
As production coupon MBS prices have bounced 9 ticks from intraday lows, lenders are starting to reprice for the better. Reports are not yet widespread but we are hearing of scattered recalls.
2:32PM :
FOMC Voter: QEII to Run its Course. End this Summer
(DOWJONES) Fisher doubts monetary policy has much new to offer and believes the business community is being held back primarily by Washington-fueled uncertainty. Major changes in the oversight of the financial system, coupled with reform of the health care system, were the primary forces blunting hiring and, in Fisher's view, the Fed could do little to change that. Fisher continues to tie the moderate pace of recovery to those factors, but in an interview Monday with Dow Jones Newswires, the official said he expects the Fed's $600 billion bond buying program to be completed by next summer as planned. But he did not expect the Fed to go beyond the planned amount, and he said it's
up to congressional leaders to take the actions that will be needed to help boost the outlook.
2:27PM :
FOMC Voter Fisher: Congress Needs to Step Up
(Dow Jones)--Believing the Federal Reserve has done enough to aid the economy, FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher called on Congress today to reduce uncertainty and get its financial house in order, which should then help improve the economy's growth prospects. "The Fed has done much ... to provide the bridge financing until the new Congress gets to work restructuring the tax and regulatory incentives American businesses need to confidently expand their payrolls and capital expenditures here at home”
2:14PM :
U.S. Budget Deficit Smaller Than Forecast in December
(Reuters) - The United States posted an $80 billion budget deficit in December, slightly smaller than economists had expected, Treasury Department data showed on Wednesday. The December deficit was narrower than December 2009's gap of $91 billion and just under the $82 billion forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Receipts rose to $237 billion in the latest month, up from $219 billion a year earlier. Outlays rose to $317 billion from $310 billion in December 2009. The government has now posted a budget deficit for 27 straight months, the longest streak on record, the Treasury Department said. http://fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html
2:11PM :
Fed Releases Updated QEII Schedule
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
2:08PM :
ALERT:
Bond Yields Inch Slightly Higher In Response To Beige Book
After yields near 3.37 provided the first major resistance bounce following the 10yr auction and was subsequently broken in favor of 3.35, the recent beige book release nudged yields back to that technical level. This short term pivot is now being tested for a support bounce and so far, is performing well, especially as stocks languish sideways since the 10yr auction.
2:05PM :
FED SAYS NOT SEEING UPWARD PRESSURE ON WAGES
Source: Reuters
2:04PM :
RETAIL SPENDING IMPROVED ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS; BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES MIXED - BEIGE BOOK
Source: Reuters
2:03PM :
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS REMAINED WEAK ACROSS ALL FED DISTRICTS - BEIGE BOOK
Source: Reuters
2:02PM :
FED SAYS U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO EXPAND MODERATELY THROUGH EARLY JANUARY
Source: Reuters
2:02PM :
ALL FED DISTRICTS INDICATED EMPLOYMENT LEVELS ARE RISING IN AT LEAST SOME SECTORS, GENERALLY BY MODEST AMOUNTS--BEIGE BOOK
Source: Reuters
1:55PM :
ALERT:
Beige Book Up Shortly As 10yr Yields Trade BELOW 2 Day Channel
The Post-Auction trading range has consolidated in a perfectly narrower triangle heading to 3.35. Beige book will coincide with triangle breakout. Seems that an upside breakout would result in something more sideways than outright "negative," even though a bullish breakout could, itself, be limited by the "wait and see" for tomorrow's auction.
1:40PM :
ALERT:
Bonds Now Testing To Break The Back Of Two-Day Bear Trend
There's a clearly defined trend channel leading yields higher from closing level lows on the 10th. Those lows connect with yesterday's early morning and late afternoon lows to form a trendline that current yields just hit. Markets may decide to wait for beige book or tomorrow's 30 year auction before breaking this recent bear trend. If that's the case, it would be far more important for yields to STAY UNDER technical support from the opposite side of that trend channel that rested at 3.42 moments ago, but could be approaching 3.50 by tomorrow afternoon. For now, yields are holding at their best levels of the day however.
1:32PM :
UPDATE ON TECHNICAL ISSUES (Resolved)
IF YOU ARE NOT SEEING PRICES AND YIELDS FLASH IN REAL TIME, PLEASE REFRESH YOUR BROWSER TO IMPLEMENT THE UPDATE THAT FIXES THIS ISSUE
1:27PM :
ALERT:
10yr Yields Met 3.37 Resistance, but May Be Finding Support Before Moving Much Higher.
Since 3:14, yields are moving HIGHER as 10's seem to have had a tough time with 3.37 technical (which is where we noted yields would "immediately move following a strong auction). Either this will prove to be a consolidative move sideways before additional strength, a technical resistance bounce (bad), or a convenient location to pause before getting the green light from beige book and tomorrow's auction. In the last 60 seconds or so, yields are showing the first potential sign of holding support just below 3.39 (supports two of the less "bad" theories above).
1:22PM :
IMPORTANT NOTE REGARDING TECHNICAL ISSUES
We are aware that some of you recently experienced trouble refreshing the dashboard immediately following the 10yr Auction. This is likely being caused by the amount of site traffic drastically exceeding our forecasts for the early post-auction minutes. We are in the process of determining the exact source of this issue and implementing a fix.
1:11PM :
ALERT:
MBS Gain Following 10yr Auction
Strong results in the 10yr indicate pent-up demand for the long end. MBS FNCL 4.5's are up sharply in concert with 10yr Treasury Note Prices, rising to 102-03 from 101-30. Reprices for the BETTER will follow if this initial momentum Carries.
1:03PM :
ALERT:
U.S. TREASURIES PRICES CUT LOSSES AFTER 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE AUCTION
Source: Reuters
1:02PM :
ALERT:
U.S. 9-YR 10-MO NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 3.30, NON-COMP BIDS $37.49 MLN
Source: Reuters
1:02PM :
ALERT:
U.S. SELLS $21 BLN 9-YR 10-MO NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 3.388 PCT, AWARDS 38.50 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH
Source: Reuters
12:14PM :
More Stable MBS Fight To Stay Sideways As 10yr's Push Their High Yields
It's a dysfunctional love triangle this morning as we sort out who is pushing whom. An ongoing equity rally keeps 10yrs pinned at their worst levels of the day. The question of "how much of a concession are we supposed to build in?" likely isn't helping the situation. MBS are caught in the crossfire of that negativity as 4.5's are forced to concede another tick to rest at 101-30. But at least there's grace under fire as FNCL 4.5's are looking much less choppy vs 10's, as they fight to stay sideways around 102-00.
11:44AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
11:37AM :
Stocks Add to Gains. Benchmarks Hold Support. MBS Outperform
S&Ps have improved further over the past 30 minutes but benchmark TSYs are holding up and continue to drift mostly sideways BELOW 3.42%. We take this relative stability as a positive indicator of pent up bond investor demand, which we hope will be displayed in the $21 billion 10 year note auction. Results will be released at 1pm. MBS yield spreads are tighter
10:53AM :
"SIDEWAYS" Continues To Be The Theme, But Stocks Pushing Bonds To Lows
As stocks have crept into their highest levels of the morning, bonds are at their weakest levels with the 10yr now above 3.41 and FNCL 4.5's at 101-31 and seemingly under pressure. Things may get worse before they get better if the market decides it needs additional concessions before the 1pm 10yr Auction.
9:40AM :
Bonds Holding Flat After Data and Stock Market Open
It remains to be see whether or not stocks and bond yields will move with much correlation this AM, but at least as far as opening stock levels are concerned, bonds are continuing to hold steady with 10yr notes in a narrow range centered on 3.40. and FNCL 4.5's still at or near 102-00 depending on the moment (+ or - a tick).
8:57AM :
Intraday Pivots And Reprice Targets
The 10yr has taken an opportunity to back up a bit this morning and has done so to a rather logical pivot point around 3.41. This were the high yields from late Dec and 1/3, and the low yields from the 5th and 6th. So far it seems to be holding supportively this AM, but be wary that a breakout could be a negative momentum signal. MBS are just over 102 and any losses that put them near 101-26 (January lows) would coincide with acceleration in reprice risk. On the upside, 102-10 is the next important technical, with a sustained move there, or significant break above likely resulting in reprice for the better potential.
8:41AM :
Geithner on China: Yuan Still Substantially Undervalued
Geithner Comments on China: Beijing's currency regime "not a tenable policy" for world. US needs progress from China on currency, intellectual property issues. China a source of opportunity and concern for U.S. China and U.S.. need each other for economic growth. However, U.S. growth will depend on u.s. decision, not china's policies. U.S. needs "more simple and more fair" tax system
8:35AM :
Loan Demand: Purchase Apps -3.7%. Refi's +4.9%
Mortgage purchase applications fell 3.7% in the first week of the New Year, but overall loan application volume nonetheless increased thanks to an advance of refinancings, according to the latest weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell four basis points to 4.78%, spurring homeowners to lock in at better rates. Refinances increased 4.9% in the week, helping the overall index climb 2.2%.
The four-week average of the index remains down 5.3%.
“In a discouraging sign for the home sales outlook, the nascent recovery in purchase applications has recently stalled,” said economists at Nomura Global Economics prior to the release. “Unless the improving trend from late November returns, we may need to lower some of our home sales forecasts.”
8:33AM :
U.S. DEC NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES +0.4 PCT, YEAR-OVER-YEAR +2.7 PCT
Source: Reuters
8:32AM :
Well-Attended Portuguese Bond Auction Soothes Short Term Concerns
Economists at BMO Capital Markets note that Portugal’s bond auction yesterday was “somewhat better than expected, with borrowing costs easing and demand at the high end of an expected range.” However, they expressed reservations about the rest of the week. “This removes some pressure on the country to seek a bailout, but investors remain worried that borrowing costs remain unsustainably high and that Portugal will need to seek aid. As well, the bigger test of investor confidence could be Spain and Italy’s debt auctions tomorrow.”
8:32AM :
US DEC YEAR-OVER-YEAR IMPORT PRICES +4.8 PCT, EXPORT PRICES RECORD +6.5 PCT
Source: Reuters
8:32AM :
U.S. DEC PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES +3.9 PCT VS NOV +4.4 PCT
Source: Reuters
8:32AM :
U.S. DEC EXPORT PRICES +0.7 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.7 PCT) VS NOV +1.5 PCT (PREV +1.5 PCT)
Source: Reuters
8:31AM :
ALERT:
U.S. DEC IMPORT PRICES +1.1 PCT (CONS. +1.2 PCT) VS NOV +1.5 PCT (PREV +1.3 PCT)
Source: Reuters
7:59AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
Brett Boyke : "Flag, Wells and GMAC repriced"
Jason Zimmer : "here is fed's response...A. Fed Response - No. A broker may not adjust its compensation in this manner. The Board regards this as similar to a
pricing concession which may not vary per loan. However, the creditor can consider the error in resetting compensation to
the originator for future loans."
The Notorious O.W.L. : "Jason, I've been looking into it as well (was on a webinar during the auction)....starting to see some stuff come out about it. SunTrust was the first to issue anything from a TPO standpoint. Obviously, the new rule was not drafted by anyone who has sat through a closing that has turned sideways. I would not be surprised to see amendents that allow post-disclosure credits if it is to the customers benefit. Much more to follow on this, and soon, considering how close around the corner it is."
Jason Zimmer : "has anyone else read the FAQs by the Fed that says when new Comp rules go in effet their can be NO GFE cures out of broker comp!!! that looks like that was well thought out"
Mitch Mitchell : "MG- definitely to the benefit of all. New site gets rid of a lot of trolls too! The price we pay is easily recouped. The ability to edumicate the borrowers with this information and analysis is worth its weight in gold too. "
Matthew Graham : "we're excited to be taking the relationship with several years worth of loyal readers to the next level, hopefully to the benefit of all"
The Notorious O.W.L. : "I'm hoping some dovish (rational) comments in the Biege Book will only help this positive momentum."
Mitch Mitchell : "BTW Matt and Adam the site is amazing. I've been following it for 2 years and the knowledge I've gained is priceless! Thanks for all you do!"
Matthew Graham : "now getting some sideways chatter in the 3.37 range, indicating another potential bout with resistance there"
Matthew Graham : "Either this will prove to be a consolidative move sideways before additional strength, a technical resistance bounce (bad), or a convenient location to pause before getting the green light from beige book and tomorrow's auction"
Matthew Graham : "Since 3:14, yields are moving HIGHER as 10's seem to have had a tough time with 3.37 technical (which is where we noted yields would "immediately move following a strong auction)."
Matthew Graham : "1 more day to go to hold 3.40/42 and that will leave long term technicals turning bullishly for first time since November"
Jason Zimmer : "York, i have one of those right now. stay at home mom for 14 years now a babysitter at Womens Workout World nursery...haven't submitted yet though, doing pre-qual"
Aaron Meyer : "I can portfolio deals like that in WI, I portfolioed a condo at 33% LTV that the 2nd market said no "
Jason York : "VA, they haven't said no, but jsut getting some flack on it"
Jason Wilborn : "the best place to get that loan to work is to try and get the employer to work with you"
Aaron Meyer : "23% LTV and they will not ??? What state is the loan in?"
Jason York : "good idea JW"
Jason Wilborn : "the reason I suggest a Written VOE is it has a line for "is job expected to continue". If you can get the employer to commit to future earnings it might work"
Jason York : "about 6 months, 27% LTV, 763 mid"
Jason York : "I just sent that this morning, and I think the UW is taking it up, actually the UW was ok with the letter, but the lead wants a little more"
Ira Selwin : "reserves?"
Jason York : "did that owl, but she hasn't really worked ina about 18 yrs"
Victor Burek : "so she is in the same line of work basically"
The Notorious O.W.L. : "Jason.....maybe a good idea to get a resume from the customer, and send it to underwriting."
Jason York : "guest services at a hotel"
Ira Selwin : "what type of job does she have now"
Jason York : "the UW is trying to help, but is getting pounded by her lead UW, the child had a learning disability, so she stayed home with him until he was able to go to college"
Aaron Meyer : "FHA used to with a LOX explaining back to work stay at home before could document kids now in school etc."
Victor Burek : "they want 2 yr"
Victor Burek : "my bank wont do that loan"
Jason York : "anyone run into issues with a customer that only has 8 months work experience? She has been a stay at home mother for about 17 years, and is now back to work since the child is now in college, and only has about 9 months on current job, and UW is giving me trouble"
Jason York : "JR we talked about this last week sometime, apparently DU is doing this to discourage running scenarios a bunch of times, I think the only way you will get the 2055 back it to run a new DU file, but only run it once"
Jason Wilborn : "I have"
Scott Valins : "has anyone seen Chase approve a subordination with CLTV over 100%, refying the first as a HARP"
John Rodgers : "Someone help me with this. DU required 2055 ext only when we pulled the DU. The 2055 came back higher and we updated our LOS. Now DU wants a full appraisal based on new value in LOS."
Matt Hodges : "Any RM orginators - NRMLA has a FB page now"
Adam Quinones : "that is current market DoD change "
Victor Burek : "we closed at 102-09 after roll"
Brett Boyke : "Chase and GMAC -.42"
Matt Hodges : "clarification, please. Is the -10 the roll from yesterday? it would appear that the true change on the day 1/2 ticks, and the roll was 8/9"
Brett Boyke : "showing wells -.261"
Jill Statz : "both Wells and Flagstar have had pop up windows getting your free credit scores today only...what is up with that? Free credit score day?"
Victor Burek : "flagstar is .3 worse than reprice yesterday and .6 worse than yestedays open"
Victor Burek : "yes, noon central"
Aaron Meyer : "is there $21B worth of 10 years auctioned today at noon?"
John Rodgers : "maybe it will go off at 3.37 and will lift us a bit. I was watching Merideth Whitney on CNBC this morning. She isn't much of a market mover but her sentiment is friendly to mortgage pricing. "
Dirk Postupack : "just want gut feeling......no crystal ball needed..........you know that float / lock is up to me........"
Matthew Graham : "If we stay at 3.40, results could be very informative "
Matthew Graham : "I don't know dirk. no crystal ball"