MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 10:57 AM EST |
Market Updates
11:00AM :
Loan Pricing Update: 1/19/2011
C30 loan pricing is 25.9bps worse on average today and buydowns are 1.3bps more expensive. The largest rebate reductions are seen in the note rates used to fill 4.0 MBS trades. Week over week loan pricing is 6.4bps worse and buydowns are 0.8bps richer.
10:30AM :
10yr Notes In Early Stages Of What Could Be A Nice Support Bounce
Far too early for a conclusive decision, but after touching the lower end of their 2 day trend channel at 3.34, 10's moved back to the other end of the channel. Rather than move higher to test earlier morning highs, they hooked back up with the trend channel support line, and bounced just over 3.336. So far, this bounce is intact, and if it can be confirmed by a move back down into the 3.33's, it's a promising technical development. MBS would also be better equipped to rally if that sort of directional stability emerges in benchmarks. Overall caveat: still far too early to tell, but something to watch and hope for...
9:53AM :
ALERT:
Sharp Rebound Now In Bonds As Stocks Fall Fast
Out of the gate the S&P is down from just under 1295 to 1291.4. Benchmark 10yr notes have recaptured nearly all their losses from the previous high, currently at 3.3507. FNCL 4.5's are up sharply to 102-10. Lenders that prices with MBS near the lows will now potentially be faced with the prospect of needing to reprice for the better if recent gains can hold above these levels.
9:28AM :
Selling Pauses At Yesterday's High Volume Support Level
To be fair, there were arguably two separate instances yesterday where volume in 10yr futures rose during support bounces, the first at 120-16 and the following at 120-08.We did see our first reasonable attempt at a support bounce a few minutes ago right at the 120-16 level (3.374 in 10yr cash, noted yesterday as the AM pivot). And although prices had fallen since then, they've since returned. 3.385 is the high yield mark so far today in 10yr notes. We're currently at 3.374.
9:19AM :
Asterisk Needed on Building Permits Data
The Commerce Department said " increases in the numbers of housing units authorized by building permits in the Northeast and West in December 2010 may be related to changes to state building codes for new residential construction effective in January 2011 in California, Pennsylvania, and New York."
9:16AM :
House to vote on health care repeal today
After a heated midterm election, the Republican-led House will try to fulfill a campaign promise later today and cast votes to repeal the nation's sweeping health care law.
Passage is expected, given the GOP's comfortable majority in the House. But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has vowed to block the measure and President Obama has threatened to veto a repeal bill.
9:15AM :
ALERT:
From "Slightly Improved" To "Slightly Weaker"
We have a great example on our hands of how to use trend channels. They are not a PREDICTIVE tool (i.e. they, in no way, indicate that the trend will continue) but rather, are watched so that we have an indication of a shift in a previous trend. The short term channel in benchmark 10yr notes just broke with yields moving higher. FNCL 4.5's are down some more as well, at 102-03. On the off chance you have rates already today, reprices for the worse may already be possible as we're down 8 ticks from the morning's highs. Otherwise, the AM weakness should be baked in to sheets when they come out.
9:11AM :
Compensate Victims of Servicer Foreclosure Errors?
(Reuters) - The mortgage servicing industry should fund a new commission to compensate homeowners who have been kicked out of their homes because of errors made by servicers, a top U.S. banking regulator said on Wednesday.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Chairman Sheila Bair said this claims commission could be modeled on those created to compensate victims of the BP oil spill and Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
In a speech outlining proposals for broad reforms to the mortgage servicing industry, Bair said she expects the industry to oppose such a commission but argued that this reluctance would be shortsighted.
"Every time servicers have delayed needed changes to minimize their short-term costs, they have seen a deepening of the crisis that has cost them - and the rest of us - even more," Bair said at an event hosted by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
8:45AM :
Bond Market Slightly Improved This Morning, but FNCL 4.5's lagging
10yr yields moved several bps lower this morning, but met resistance in line with the trend channel we discussed yesterday, and have since risen a bout 1 bp to 3.35+. You can get a clear picture of the trend channel and it's continuance this morning by pulling up the 2 day chart in 10's. FNCL 4.5's are in a channel of their own, but a more sideways one, and are currently unchanged at 102-08. Housing Starts data has had little effect on bonds thus far.
8:33AM :
DATA FLASH: New Residential Construction
BUILDING PERMITS: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000. This is 16.7 percent (±2.1%) above the revised November rate of 544,000, but is 6.8 percent (±2.8%) below the December 2009 estimate of 681,000.
HOUSING STARTS: Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000. This is 4.3 percent (±14.1%)* below the revised November estimate of 553,000 and is 8.2 percent (±14.4%)* below the December 2009 rate of 576,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS: Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 585,000. This is 4.1 percent (±17.7%)* above the revised November estimate of 562,000, but is 22.2 percent (±11.3%) below the December 2009 rate of 752,000.
8:30AM :
Obama and Hu to confront economic strains, North Korea
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao will confront stubborn rifts over North Korea and bilateral economic imbalances on Wednesday when they meet amid the pomp of a formal state visit.
Hu's visit is not expected to yield major breakthroughs on key disputes but the United States and China planned to announce a deal to boost cooperation on nuclear security, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.
Both presidents have vowed stronger cooperation between the world's two largest economies in an effort to bridge the strains of the past year over human rights, Taiwan, Tibet and the gaping U.S. trade deficit with China.
Taking major strides toward narrowing these disagreements, however, will test the depth of their partnership.
8:29AM :
Wells Fargo fourth-quarter profit rises 21 percent
(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, reported a 21 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit, helped by double-digit revenue growth in multiple business units and lower credit costs.
The San Francisco-based bank said earnings rose to $3.4 billion, or 61 cents a share, from $2.8 billion, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier.
Analysts on average expected a profit of 61 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Revenue increased 12 percent to $21.5 billion.
Wells report $158 billion in mortgage applications taken in the 4th quarter.
8:26AM :
Mortgage Apps: Refi's +7.7%. Purchases -1.9%
NEW YORK, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages increased last week as interest rates dipped to their lowest in a month, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity rose 5 percent in the week ended Jan. 14.
The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications gained 7.7 percent last week, and the gauge of loan requests for home purchases fell 1.9 percent.
Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.77 percent in the week, down 1 basis point from 4.78 percent the prior week. The rate is down from 4.93 percent at the end of December.
8:22AM :
Goldman Profts Decline. Still Beats Estimates
(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc on Wednesday posted a decline in quarterly profit, in part reflecting lower results in fixed-income trading.
Fourth-quarter net income after payment of preferred stock dividends totaled $2.23 billion, or $3.79 per share, compared with $4.79 billion, or $8.20 a share, a year earlier.
Analysts on average $3.76 per share, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S said.
7:52AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
Adam Quinones : "inflation premium illustrated."
Jason Wilborn : "steepest on record"
Jason Wilborn : "yield curve between 2's and 30's AQ"
John Rodgers : "I'm hearing the same thing on the street. Lenders very hesitant to drop down to the 4.0s after that got taken to the woodshed in Nov/Dec."
Adam Quinones : "4.0s are more sensitive to choppy benchmark yields. lenders will want some stability before totally shifting to them as a production coupon"
Jill Statz : "Wells opened aobut .125 worse across the board and the reprice is for about another .1 across the board worse"
Adam Quinones : "it just means we widen to benchmarks"
Adam Quinones : "but lag doesnt necessarily mean wider primary/secondary spreads"
Adam Quinones : "the duration shift is what will ultimately make us lag"
Adam Quinones : "which reduces demand "
Adam Quinones : "more loan supply implies faster prepayment speeds JR"
Adam Quinones : "not exactly but the end result is yes..."
Victor Burek : "flagstar is about .1 better than yesterday"
John Rodgers : "So if originators offer up more supply that will inevitably hurt pricing?"
Jason York : "wells reprice was for the worse"
Brian Spiegel : "gm from the snowy midwest all! as i mentioned yesterday i am new the business and joined MBSonMND yesterday...i can say i learned more in 1 day reading all of your guys posts then anyone talks about here...thanks!"
Adam Quinones : "vol will rise as hedge bc market is unsure of itself duration-wise"
Adam Quinones : "I think we're rich and spreads will widen into any benchmark rally as vol rises and originators offer supply to the street"
Adam Quinones : "whereas we usually see "higher and wider" and "lower and tighter""
Adam Quinones : "so in reality I would say we've seen more erratic behavior...as in "higher and tighter" and "lower and wider""
Adam Quinones : "...more lately the MBS basis has been the subject to more day trading because of this increased sensitivity."
Adam Quinones : "John we are right in the middle of a duration shift in the MBS market. This makes production coupons generally more sensitive to benchmark yields, especially when they are chopping around a wide yet well defined range..."
John Rodgers : "Matt, seems like the MBS trades are slower to react to the movement of the ten year lately. Do traders take a wait and see approach or is it entirely different? At the end of 2010 they seemed to move in lock step. "
Adam Quinones : "After May 1 Freddie is, "Requiring verification of funds for all refinance mortgages. This requirement will apply to all refinance transactions except for certain Relief Refinance Mortgages - Same Servicer. The elimination of Freddie Mac-owned streamlined refinance mortgages and requiring that a purchase money mortgage be seasoned for 120 days in order to be refinanced as a "no cash-out" refinance mortgage. If the new mortgage is refinancing a purchase money transaction, the note date of the or"
Adam Quinones : "Wells Fargo alerted its broker clients about changes required escrow holdback accounts starting Monday. "Escrows for completion will only be allowed for minor items that do not affect the safety, livability, marketability, or accessibility of the subject property. Escrows are not allowed on condominiums if the incomplete items are common elements or property.""
Adam Quinones : "Bank of America correspondents were reminded that "In accordance with GSE data point of delivery requirements, effective on all loans delivered for purchase on or after January 28, 2011: Rental income and bedroom count for the subject property must be captured on all non-owner occupied one- to four-unit properties and all owner-occupied two- to four-unit properties, whether or not the rental income is used to qualify the borrower and regardless of the Automated Underwriting System (AUS) decision"
Matthew Graham : "yes indeed. That breaks the uptrend in yields that was prevailing so far this AM. Seems that the support level noted in the last live update is where the market wanted to make it's stand again today."
Adam Dahill : "seeing some green action in the T market to the left"
Adam Quinones : "+23k in SFD, +68k in MFD"
Chris Kopec : "On the permits, multifamily +55% v single family c. +5%"
Adam Quinones : "we have a major homelessness issue to deal with"
Adam Quinones : "there is a dearth of affordable housing"
Chris Kopec : "I would agree, especially in urban areas.....time for city halls to get more creative, or at least, starting thinking like investors and recognize a great buying opportunity.....affordable housing could become more affordable."
Adam Quinones : "(time to knock down excess inventory?)"
Chris Kopec : "So, actual housing starts missed their marked, but regulatory-fueled permits up. I guess paperwork beats concrete?"
Chris Kopec : "".....However, the Commerce Department noted that building code changes took effect on January 1 in California, Pennsylvania and New York. In turn, some of the multifamily strength likely is due to construction companies getting approval before the tighter regulations...." http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/"
Gus Floropoulos : "market still range bound, lets see where the bounce is"
Matthew Graham : "The move higher in treasury yields is more a function of technical resistance"
Matthew Graham : "it's not influencing much Terry"
Terry Colabrese : "Good Morning, All! I'm a little confused, guys. How would this mixed result information influence MBS this much?"
Adam Quinones : "08:30 19Jan11 RTRS-US DEC HOUSING STARTS -4.3 PCT VS NOV +3.8 PCT (PREV +3.9 PCT)
08:30 19Jan11 RTRS-US DEC HOUSING STARTS 529,000 UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 550,000) VS NOV 553,000 (PREV 555,000)
08:30 19Jan11 RTRS-US DEC HOUSING PERMITS +16.7 PCT VS NOV -1.4 PCT (PREV -1.4 PCT)
08:30 19Jan11 RTRS-US DEC HOUSING PERMITS 635,000 UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 555,000) VS NOV 544,000 (PREV 544,000)
08:30 19Jan11 RTRS-US DEC HOUSING COMPLETIONS +4.1 PCT TO 585,000 UNIT RATE VS NOV 562,000
08:30 19Jan11 RTRS-US 20"